Make it your homepage |   E-mail: Subscribe Unsubscribe


Sunday, April 20, 2014
News Making Money

A Closer Look at Optimism

Written by Frank Klobucar, GORBI

14/01/2013 19:44 (460 Day 20:04 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- Last week, we discussed an economic optimism that has arisen in the developing and second world, one that came with greater pessimism in the west. 

ADVERTISEMENT

 

At the top of the list of hopeful countries was our very own Georgia, with 69% of respondents saying that 2013 will be economically more prosperous than 2012, and only 6% predicting a rougher road ahead.  This week, we will take a closer look at just Georgia.  Which Georgians are driving this above average optimism?  Is it just a natural tendency of Georgians to see a bright future?

 

All the data from last week’s article were from the annual Global Barometer survey, and this week’s are as well.  WIN-Gallup International, the world’s largest independent opinion polling organization, has conducted this survey every year for the last 35.  Since 1999, Georgian Opinion Research Business International has worked as a member to include Georgians’ opinions in their global database when possible. Luckily, this also allows us trend data for 9 of the last 11 years and more in-depth numbers on particular demographics.

 

Time and Age -- Economists and sociologists have realized over time that, while human beings are largely rational in their interpretations of the world, they are oftentimes less so, and respond more to emotion or desire than to calculated thought.  There is good evidence to support this idea when looking at trust ratings of leaders and institutions about which respondents have little information, which are frequently at their highest immediately after elections or major crises.

 

Looking at the last decade, we can see this effect in Georgia.  The two obvious peaks in economic hope since 1999 were from polls immediately following the Rose Revolution, and immediately after Georgian Dream’s parliamentary victory.  This is not meant to devalue Georgians’ collective hope for 2013, it’s only a reminder that similar patterns are found throughout history.  Whether it’s an increase in hope for next year’s economy, happiness with democracy, or even life satisfaction, new leadership seems to make people more positive.

 

As for this year’s results, the data show us a few correlations to specific demographics that are worth mentioning.  There is a common connection between youth and hopefulness, and this is true in Georgia as well, even if it’s not a perfect correlation.  The most hopeful in Georgia are those aged 25-34, with an economic hope index of 69.  The runners up were aged 18 to 24, and the oldest were the most pessimistic.  Additionally, Georgian men seem to be more hopeful for 2013’s economy, having a 6 point lead on women’s index of 60.

 

Gender

 

Male

66

Female

60

Employment

 

Working

68

Unemployed

63

Not working (voluntary)

63

Retired

55

Age

 

18 – 24

66

25 – 34

69

35 – 44

61

45 – 54

61

55 – 64

62

65+

57

     

 

Employment and Income -- There are also correlations between economic optimism and two variables closely related to one another: employment status and household income.  Those with jobs at the time of the survey were more hopeful than their peers (68), whether the unemployment was voluntary (students, homemakers) or involuntary (63).  Retired Georgians were the least optimistic (55), owing at least some of their negativity to both the higher average age and lower average income of the cohort. 

 

Obviously linked to employment, household income has an even clearer relationship to economic hopefulness.  61% of respondents with a household monthly income of 150 GEL or less believe that 2013 holds economic promise, and this number climbs relatively steadily until it peaks at 85% of the wealth iest Georgians we surveys (1151 GEL/month or more).  The number of respondents that believe the economy will stay the same also decreases steadily with income, starting at 20% of the poorest respondents, and bottoming out at 3% for everyone making more than 950 GEL each month.

 

One point of interest is in how these income cohorts predict economic despair.  You’ll notice on the chart displaying the relationship between income and economic hope, the wealth iest respondents actually have a noticeably lower index than their closest cohort.  As I just mentioned, this is not for lack of hopeful respondents, nor is it because of higher non-response rates (3%), or more wealth y predicting a similar year (3%).  Instead, it comes from 10% of the wealth iest cohort predicting an economic downturn. 

 

It is of course possible that this is a statistical fluke; with the great wealth disparity in Georgia, the number of wealth y respondents is typically a small fraction of the sample (in this case, those making more than 1150 GEL comprise 3.9% of the sample, or 39 respondents).  This results in larger margins of error or lower confidence intervals for the cohort.

 

Regardless of who has the highest and lowest expectations for Georgia’s 2013, let’s not forget that even the least expectant cohort we’ve discussed boasts an index 47 points above the global mean.  Since 2003, Georgians have predicted and continue to predict improvements in their economic situation.

 

All indices in this and other Global Barometer columns are generated simply – by subtracting the percentage of those with negative attitudes from those with positive. This poll was conducted in November and December of 2012, and there were 1000 Georgians included, giving these data general margins of error of around 3% with 95% confidence. 

 

 

Make Your Comment

Add NewSearchRSS
Only registered users and facebook social network members can write comments!

This text is replaced by the Flash movie.
This text is replaced by the Flash movie.
Politics
Parliament issues strong call for EU lobby transparency register to become mandatory

16/04/2014 16:53 (3 Day 22:55 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- The report approved by MEPs gives an important signal to the European Commission that a far more ambitious approach is needed to secure genuine lobby transparency in the EU, according to EUbusiness Ltd.

Read more...
TRAVEL BIZ
American Express Reports First Quarter EPS of $1.33, Up 16 Percent from a Year Ago

19/04/2014 14:24 (1 Day 01:24 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- American Express Company reported first-quarter net income of $1.4 billion, up from $1.3 billion a year ago. Diluted earnings per share rose 16 percent to $1.33, from $1.15 a year ago, according to the American Express Company.

Read more...



World News
Helping Bulgarian farmers to become landowners

19/04/2014 11:39 (1 Day 04:09 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- The EBRD is providing a €5 million to loan to Elana Agrocredit AD to co-finance the development of Bulgaria’s agricultural land market.

The World Bank Supports Small and Medium-sized Businesses in Tunisia

19/04/2014 10:29 (1 Day 05:19 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- The World Bank approved an additional loan for US$100 million for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Tunisia.

EBRD loans to boost energy efficiency and support competitiveness of Macedonian companies

16/04/2014 16:42 (3 Day 23:06 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- The EBRD has teamed up with Macedonian bank, NLB Tutunska banka, to increase the competitiveness of the Macedonian private sector and to promote energy efficiency in the country with a €6 million financing package, according to EBRD.      

EBRD helps modernise Baltic freight handling

16/04/2014 16:29 (3 Day 23:19 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- A €32.5 million loan from the EBRD to Klaipedos Smelte, the company operating the container terminal at Klaipeda port in Lithuania, helped modernise its freight handling capacities and upgrade the whole Baltics region as a transit hub, according to EBRD.

CityLife
Africans among the most morally opposed to contraception

19/04/2014 08:33 (1 Day 07:15 minutes ago)

csi_2.jpg

The FINANCIAL -- Speaking to bishops from Tanzania last week, Pope Francis praised church workers in Africa “who strive diligently to educate people in the area of sexual responsibility and chastity” with the aim of preventing HIV and AIDS.

TRAVEL BIZ »
PRESS RELEASES »
FINANCIAL »
UKRAINE »
GEORGIA »
WORLD »
BANKS »
BUSINESS »
TECH »
MARKETS »
B SCHOOLS »
SPECIAL REPORTS »

Markets
Major Cloud Service Providers Slash Prices; Threaten Smaller Players’ Existence: IDC Warns

19/04/2014 13:40 (1 Day 02:08 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- In the last week of March, major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) in Asia dropped their prices for core services dramatically and IDC believes that this will make it very difficult for smaller CSPs to remain in business if they continue to rely on provision of basic, undifferentiated services, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).

Jobs
Philippines: Further reforms to strengthen growth, create more and better jobs

11/04/2014 12:00 (9 Day 03:48 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- The Philippines is likely to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the East Asia and Pacific region in the next two years.

Oil&Auto
Shell announces Malaysia deep-water gas discovery

19/04/2014 12:52 (1 Day 02:56 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- Shell announced an exploration discovery offshore Malaysia. The successful ‘Rosmari-1’ well is located 135 kilometres offshore in Block SK318, and was drilled to a total depth of 2,123 metres, according to Shell.

Read more...
INSURANCE
M&A insurance grows as confidence increases

18/04/2014 16:18 (1 Day 23:30 minutes ago)

The FINANCIAL -- As the green shoots of economic recovery have started to show in key markets like the UK and US, demand for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) insurance has been rising, according to Lloyd's, the world's specialist insurance market.

Read more...






Developed by Aleksandre Chiabrishvili

Design built by Creo Group