Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

The FINANCIAL -- Economy

Exports up 22.1% y/y in July 2017

In July 2017, exports increased 22.1% y/y to US$ 212.0mn, imports were up 6.0% y/y to US$ 636.2mn and the trade deficit narrowed 0.5% y/y to US$ 424.2mn according to GeoStat’s preliminary figures. In 7M17, trade deficit was flat and amounted US$ 2.8bn as exports increased 28.9% y/y to 1.4bn, while imports were up 8.5% y/y to 4.2bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on August 21, 2017.

Money transfers up 20.1% y/y in July 2017

In July 2017, money transfers increased 20.1% y/y to US$ 120.9mn after growing 17.1% y/y in previous month, according to NBG. Money transfers were up from almost every major remitting countries: Russia (+14.3% y/y, 35.6% of total), USA (+15.6% y/y, 10.5% of total), Italy (+21.2% y/y, 10.0% of total), Israel (+112.5% y/y, 8.6% of total) and Turkey (+28.2% y/y, 7.7% of total) while transfers were down from Greece (+4.1% y/y, 9.9% of total). In 1H17 money transfers were up 19.8% y/y to US$ 749.9mn.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: BGEO Group Eurobonds (BGEOLN) closed at 5.5% yield, trading at 102.4 (+1.0% w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 99.8 (unchanged w/w), yielding 11.1%. GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 105.5 (-0.5% w/w), yielding 5.1%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 109.9 (unchanged w/w), yielding 5.4%. 

Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 112.1 (+0.1% w/w) at 3.3% yield to maturity.

Equities

BGEO Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 34.43/share (+1.50% w/w and -1.99% m/m). More than 403k shares traded in the range of GBP 31.93 – 35.79/share. Average daily traded volume was 61k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, gained 0.45% w/w and gained 0.10% m/m. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.03% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 15.60 (unchanged w/w and -4.88% m/m). More than 103k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 15.47 – 16.66/share. Averaged daily traded volume was 28k in the last 4 weeks.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 3.42/share (-1.01% w/w and -5.14% m/m). More than 11k shares were traded in the range of GBP 3.30 – 3.50/share.  Average daily traded volume was 15k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.01% of its capitalization.

Money Market

Refinancing loans: National Bank of Georgia (NBG) issued 7-day refinancing loans of GEL 1,000mn (US$ 418.7mn). 

Ministry of Finance Treasury Notes:

10-year GEL 20.0mn (US$ 8.4mn) T-Notes of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on August 16, 2017. The weighted average yield was fixed at 9.410%. The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for august 30, 2017, where GEL 20.0mn nominal value 5-year T-Notes will be sold.