Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

The FINANCIAL -- Economy

Exports up 25.7% y/y in August 2017

In August 2017, exports increased 25.7% y/y to US$ 236.1mn, imports were up 1.2% y/y to US$ 699.7mn and the trade deficit narrowed 8.0% y/y to US$ 436.6mn according to GeoStat’s preliminary figures. In 8M17, trade deficit was down 0.9% and amounted to US$ 3.3bn as exports increased 28.5% y/y to US$ 1.7bn, while imports were up 7.5% y/y to US$ 4.9bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on September 19, 2017.

Money transfers up 15.1% y/y in August 2017

In August 2017, money transfers increased 15.1% y/y to US$ 121.8mn after growing 20.1% y/y in previous month, according to NBG. Money transfers were up from almost all major remitting countries: Russia (+9.1% y/y, 33.1% of total), USA (+9.1% y/y, 10.5% of total), Italy (+20.2% y/y, 10.4% of total), Greece (+10.8% y/y, 9.4% of total), Israel (+95.8% y/y, 8.9% of total) and Turkey (+21.8% y/y, 8.0% of total). In 8M17 money transfers were up 19.1% y/y to US$ 871.7mn.

Moody’s upgraded Georgia’s sovereign credit rating

On 11 September 2017, Moody’s upgraded the sovereign credit rating of Georgia to Ba2 from Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook. Based on Moody’s, the Georgian economy’s resilience in the wake of the 2014 regional economic shock, as an indicator of economic and institutional strength, is the main driver behind the one-notch rating upgrade. 

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: BGEO Group Eurobonds (BGEOLN) closed at 5.3% yield, trading at 103.6 (unchanged w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 100.0 (unchanged w/w), yielding 11.0%. GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 106.7 (-0.2% w/w), yielding 4.7%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 112.0 (+0.4% w/w), yielding 4.9%. 

Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 112.6 (-0.1% w/w) at 3.1% yield to maturity.

Equities

BGEO Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 32.97/share (-0.60% w/w and -4.16% m/m). More than 367k shares traded in the range of GBP 32.29 – 33.97/share. Average daily traded volume was 59k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, declined 1.30% w/w and 1.72% m/m, respectively. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.93% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 16.32 (+0.74% w/w and +3.03% m/m). More than 311k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 15.80 – 16.69/share. Averaged daily traded volume was 32k in the last 4 weeks.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 3.35/share (-4.29% w/w and -2.90% m/m). More than 285k shares were traded in the range of GBP 3.10 – 3.50/share.  Average daily traded volume was 22k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.22% of its capitalization.

Money Market

Refinancing loans: National Bank of Georgia (NBG) issued 7-day refinancing loans of GEL 950mn (US$ 386.4mn). 

Ministry of Finance Treasury Bills:

182-days GEL 20.0mn (US$ 8.1mn) T-Bills of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on September 13, 2017. The weighted average yield was fixed at 7.119%. 

Ministry of Finance Treasury Notes:

2-year GEL 20.0mn (US$ 8.1mn) T-Notes of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on September 13, 2017. The weighted average yield was fixed at 7.395%.