Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

Weekly Market Watch by Galt & Taggart

The FINANCIAL -- Economy

Exports up 38.3% y/y in October 2017

In October 2017, exports increased 38.3% y/y to US$ 262.8mn, imports were up 10.4% y/y to US$ 730.8mn and the trade deficit narrowed 0.9% y/y to US$ 468.0mn according to GeoStat’s preliminary figures. In 10M17, trade deficit was down 0.9% to US$ 4.2bn as exports increased 29.4% y/y to US$ 2.2bn, while imports were up 7.8% y/y to US$ 6.4bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on November 20, 2017.

Money transfers up 20.0% y/y in October 2017

In October 2017, money transfers increased 20.0% y/y to US$ 123.0mn after growing 24.2% y/y in previous month, according to NBG. Money transfers were up from all major remitting countries: Russia (+13.4% y/y, 31.9% of total), Greece (+17.1% y/y, 10.8% of total), Italy (+24.2% y/y, 10.3% of total), USA (+6.1% y/y, 10.0% of total), Israel (+96.9% y/y, 9.0% of total) and Turkey (+15.3% y/y, 8.2% of total). In 10M17 money transfers were up 19.8% y/y to US$ 1.2bn.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: BGEO Group Eurobonds (BGEOLN) closed at 5.3% yield, trading at 103.2 (unchanged w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 100.5 (unchanged w/w), yielding 10.8%. GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 107.4 (+0.1% w/w), yielding 4.4%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 111.8 (+0.1% w/w), yielding 4.9%.

Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 112.5 (+0.1% w/w) at 3.0% yield to maturity. Georgia Eurobonds, YTM (%)

Equities

BGEO Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 33.13/share (-6.86% w/w and -2.10% m/m). More than 372k shares traded in the range of GBP 32.95 – 35.59/share. Average daily traded volume was 424k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, lost 1.10% w/w and lost 1.64% m/m. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.08% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 16.70 (-1.76% w/w and +0.18% m/m). More than 96k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 16.63 – 17.29 share. Averaged daily traded volume was 18k in the last 4 weeks.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 3.45/share (+2.45% w/w and -3.23% m/m). More than 18k shares were traded in the range of GBP 3.34 – 3.45/share. Average daily traded volume was 14k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.02% of its capitalization.

Money Market

Refinancing loans: National Bank of Georgia (NBG) issued 7-day refinancing loans of GEL 1,050mn (US$ 390.0mn).

Ministry of Finance Treasury Notes:

2-year GEL 20.0mn (US$ 7.7mn) T-Notes of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on November 8, 2017. The weighted average yield was fixed at 7.327%. The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for November 29, 2017, where GEL 20.0mn nominal value 5-year T-Notes will be sold.