The FINANCIAL — Ipsos / Sopra Steria review the state of mind of the French people, 4 weeks before the presidential election, for France Télévisions and Radio France.
If the 1st round took place next Sunday, Marine Le Pen would be in the lead (25% of the voting intentions on the base of the people who said to be certain to go vote), together with Emmanuel Macron (24%), ahead of François Fillon (18%).
The state of mind of the French people, 4 weeks before the presidential election
65% of French people intend to go vote on the 1st round, when traditionally a lot more people are mobilised. If the 1st round took place next Sunday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon will follow (14% of the voting intentions on the base of the people who said to be certain to go vote), then Benoît Hamon (12%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (3,5%), each of the other candidates recording 1% or less of votes cast. However, the uncertain French people are still numerous nowadays: 41% of the people certain to go vote claim that their choice for the 1st round can still change. It is particularly the case of those who claim they are intended to vote for Benoît Hamon (52%), Emmanuel Macron (47%) and to a lesser extend Jean-Luc Mélenchon (40%), against only 16% for François Fillon and 18% for Marine Le Pen.
Regarding the 2nd round, if it was opposing Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron would largely win (62% of voting intentions against 38% for Marine Le Pen), particularly thanks of the good votes transfers from Benoît Hamon’s electorate (77% would vote for Emmanuel Macron on the 2nd round) and to a lesser extend from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s electorate (54%). Besides, Emmanuel Macron is nowadays the most reassuring candidate for the French people, both for his personality and for his programme, without being able to convince a majority: 30% said they are reassured by his personality and 28% by his programme, which however constitute the best scores reached yet. According to them, he is the candidate the most likely to positively influence France’s future: 25% think that if he is elected, the situation will improve (against 33% who think it will degrade and 42% neither). Marine Le Pen arrives in second position in terms of anticipated positive influence (22%) but divide a lot more with 59% of French people who think that the situation will degrade if she is elected, just ahead of François Fillon (55% anticipate a degradation if he is elected).
Candidates’ image and potential for winning
Lastly, the French people think that Emmanuel Macron is the most likely to be elected (77% think that it is sure or that the chances are high). Almost half of the French people interviewed consider that Marine Le Pen is also strongly likely to win (48%), a lot more than for François Fillon (29%), Benoît Hamon (15%) or Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12%).