The FINANCIAL — In Gallup polling conducted two weeks before Inauguration Day, President-elect Donald Trump continues to garner historically low approval for his transition performance, with 51% of Americans disapproving of how he is handling the presidential transition and 44% approving. Last month, the public was split on this question, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving.
Trump’s 48% transition approval rating in December was already the lowest for any presidential transition Gallup has measured, starting with Bill Clinton’s in 1992-1993. Trump’s current rating only further separates him from his predecessors — particularly Barack Obama, who earned 83% approval for his handling of the transition process in January 2009, up from 75% in mid-December 2008, according to Gallup.
Republicans’ rating of Trump’s transition has remained positive, with 87% approving in the Jan. 4-8 poll, similar to the 86% recorded last month. Very few Democrats approve, which has also been fairly steady, at 13% this month versus 17% in December. Meanwhile, his transition approval among independents has fallen from 46% to 33%.
Low Transition Approval Not a Function of Popular Vote
The last president before Trump to win the election despite losing the national popular vote was George W. Bush in 2000. However, while Bush’s transition scores were lower than those of both his predecessor (Clinton) and his successor (Obama), his 61% approval rating in mid-January 2001 was nowhere near as low as Trump’s is today.
Clinton received the smallest share of the U.S. popular vote (43%) of any of the past four presidents because a large segment of votes went to third-party candidate Ross Perot. Nevertheless, 62% of Americans approved of his handling of the transition process shortly after the election in November 1992, and by January 1993, his approval had risen to 68%.
Trump’s Cabinet Garners Lukewarm Reception
Americans’ reviews of Trump’s Cabinet-level appointments are mixed. In total, 52% say his Cabinet choices are “average” or better, of which 32% rate them as “outstanding” or “above average.” At the same time, 44% consider them “below average” or “poor.”
Looking at both positive and negative ratings, Americans view Trump’s Cabinet as worse than the Cabinets chosen by Obama, Bush and Clinton. However, taking into account just the percentage who consider his Cabinet “above average” or “outstanding,” Trump’s 32% is only modestly lower than the 38% for Bush in January 2001 and matches Clinton’s just before his inauguration in mid-January 1993. Only Obama’s 45% was significantly better.
The chief differentiator for Trump is that many more Americans rate his appointments as “below average” or “poor”: 44% say this about Trump’s Cabinet choices, compared with 13% for Bush’s, 12% for Clinton’s and 10% for Obama’s. The wide spread between positive and negative views of Trump’s Cabinet appointments serves as another example of the highly polarized environment in which Trump will be taking office on Jan. 20.
Relatively few Americans call Trump’s appointments “average” (20%) compared with those who said the same about Clinton’s (51%), Bush’s (43%) and Obama’s (38%).
Bottom Line
Trump has done many things since the election that some might have expected would win him public support — including reaching out to former political opponents, selecting generals for key Cabinet posts at a time when confidence in the U.S. military is high and brokering deals to keep manufacturing jobs in the U.S.
At the same time, he has maintained an aggressive posture with the press, publicly challenged U.S. intelligence agencies and waded into sensitive foreign policy matters on Twitter. Whatever the reasons, Trump’s approach since Nov. 8 has not softened Americans’ concerns about him, as a slight majority now disapprove of how he is handling the presidential transition.
Americans give Trump marginally positive reviews for his Cabinet appointments, with a majority rating them “average” or better, but a record-high percentage of Americans view them negatively.
Trump’s inauguration speech on Jan. 20 presents a major opportunity for the soon-to-be 45th president to alter how Americans view him, but after that, his image will depend more on how his actions affect real-world outcomes including the economy, healthcare costs, taxes and national security.
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