In September, businesses returned to reporting a positive economic outlook, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. The factors behind the improved business sentiment were sustained consumer demand, a stable energy situation, budgetary spending for infrastructure restoration and road construction, decelerating inflation, and a stable FX market. Nevertheless, several factors held back growth: the intensified missile and drone attacks, high reconstruction costs, higher tariffs, and a shortage of qualified staff.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI was 50.4 in September 2025, up from 49.0 in August 2025, being above the figure of 48.7 for September 2024.
Trading companies have remained the most upbeat among the sectors – they have reported positive performance expectations for seven months in a row amid a sufficient supply of goods, robust demand and decelerating inflation: the sector’s index was 54.0 in September, compared to 51.8 in August 2025 and 52.1 in September 2024.Respondents expected a further increase in trade turnover and in the amount of goods purchased for sale. Trading companies were also upbeat about their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents declared intentions to cut their trade margins.
Even with road construction being financed, sustained domestic demand, and seasonal factors, construction companies said they expected no change in their current performance: the sector’s index was 50.0 in September, compared to 54.0 in August 2025 and 50.1 in September 2024. Respondents continued to expect an increase in their construction volumes, the number of new orders, and purchases of raw materials and supplies, albeit at a slower pace. Construction companies said they intended to purchase fewer contractor services on the back of stronger growth in the cost of these services. Respondents continued to soften their views about the availability of contractors.
Despite the ongoing destruction of production facilities, the costs of overcoming its consequences, and the shortage of qualified staff, industrial companies softened their still cautious expectations regarding their current performance: the sector’s index was 49.1 in September, compared to 48.7 in August 2025 and 50.3 in September 2024. As before, industrial companies said they intended to increase their amount of manufactured goods, while expecting no changes in the number of new orders for products. Respondents improved their still guarded expectations for the number of new export orders for products, the amount of unfinished products and finished goods stocks. For the first time in the last six months, respondents expected an increase in their stocks of raw materials and supplies.
In spite of higher business costs and complicated and expensive logistics, services companies continued to soft their performance expectations: the sector’s index was 49.4 in September, compared to 47.0 in August 2025 and 44.6 in September 2024. In contrast to the previous month, companies expected an increase in the amount of services provided, the number of new orders for services, and in the amount of services that are being provided.
On the back of faster growth in purchase prices, industrial and construction companies declared intentions to raise their selling prices, while trading companies expected an increase in the cost of goods purchased for sale. The services sector expected slower growth in supplier prices, and persistently high selling prices.
Labor market conditions were unstable. As in the previous survey, only construction companies reported intentions to expand their workforces, albeit at a slower pace. Trading companies expected no change in their staff numbers. Meanwhile, industrial and services companies continued to report intentions to reduce their workforces.
This survey was carried out from 3 September through 22 September 2025. A total of 586 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 43.0% are industrial companies, 26.1% services companies, 25.1% trading companies, and 5.8% construction companies; 29.5% of the respondents are large companies, 28.5% medium companies, and 42.0% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 33.4% are both exporters and importers, 9.6% are exporters only, 17.7% are importers only, and 39.2% are neither exporters nor importers.
Discussion about this post