The FINANCIAL — Scientists from the University of Liverpool have found that climate and weather change are unlikely to seriously affect the success of mosquito-based malaria control programmes in regions where malaria is close to elimination.
Using mathematical modelling, researchers analysed how changes in weather may affect current strategies to control the number of mosquitoes, and whether these intervention techniques would remain cost-effective and be able to prevent an escalation in the number of cases of the disease, according to the University of Liverpool.
They found that although climate change will have an effect on temperature and rainfall patterns, which, in turn, will affect certain characteristics of the mosquito, increasing the distribution of bed nets and spraying people’s houses are likely to remain both effective and cost-effective.
The researchers were able to demonstrate that predicted reductions in the number of malaria cases and deaths are, from an economic perspective, worth the extra money spent in prevention, according to the University of Liverpool.
Cost-effectiveness
Dr Paul Parham, from the Institute of Psychology, Health and Society who is a Lecturer in Public Health and the MPH Director of Studies based at the University’s London campus, said: “The possibility that changes in weather and climate might influence the cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing the risk of catching malaria has not been explored before.
“Climate change is predicted to particularly affect future temperatures and rainfall in Africa, which is where malaria is most devastating, and the link with the success of mosquito control programmes has not been reported to date.
“We found that in regions where malaria is close to being eliminated, imposing the right control strategies is likely to overcome the impact of any weather-related effects.”
“However, we also found that the right policy decisions also depend on other characteristics of the region such as how much immunity there is in the population, how much of a problem insecticide resistance is and what interventions are currently used. More research is therefore most certainly needed.“
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