The FINANCIAL — Deutsche Bank expects a gradual recovery in the global economy. The Bank announced in its Capital Markets Outlook 2015 presented in Frankfurt today that experts expect global economic growth to be 3.6 percent in 2015. This is mainly due to the rapidly growing economy in the USA, according to Stefan Schneider, Deutsche Bank Chief German Economist. However, Schneider sees Europe falling back: “The reform backlog in some countries and the lack of investment only make growth of 0.8 percent possible in Europe next year, despite the ECB increasing its expansionary monetary policy. In the area of fiscal and reform policy, tensions are expected to increase again, if no sustainable structural progress is made.” Deutsche Bank also expects growth of 0.8 percent for Germany next year, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
According to the Bank, US equities as well as Asian emerging market stocks will benefit from the expected global economic recovery and stable corporate earnings. Dr. Ulrich Stephan, Chief Investment Officer for Deutsche Bank’s 28 million private and business clients, is convinced that DAX companies’ market prices will also increase in 2015. Stephan: “By the end of 2015, we see the DAX at 11,500 points. In addition to global economic growth, the reason for this is also the further depreciating euro against the US dollar.” According to Deutsche Bank, some equities from Europe therefore also provide potential. The Bank even considers parity between the US dollar and the euro as possible in the course of the next few years.
In an environment of low interest rates, equities seem interesting for promising and long-term investment. According to the experts, there is hardly any positive return possible without a risk in the foreseeable future. The Bank recommends a strategy with an allocation across asset classes, regions and currency areas. This also includes first-class office and retail real estate, which is expected to continue benefiting from the global economic environment. Gold, however, seems uninteresting as an investment in 2015 according to the Bank.
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