The FINANCIAL — According to RIA Novosti, a tight race with unpredictable results seems to be in store for arch-foes in Ukrainian presidential polls, Premier Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, when they face each other in a run-off vote on February 7, experts predicted.
Ukraine, torn between traditional ties with Russia and a post-Soviet drive westward, is deciding its new identity five years after the pro-Western Orange revolution.
According to preliminary results from the country's Central Election Commission, with 80.27% of the votes counted, Yanukovych garnered 35.76% of the vote, and Tymoshenko came second with 24.72%.
Yanukovych, 59, enjoys support in the mainly Russian-speaking eastern regions. Tymoshenko, 49, a leader of the "orange revolution" protests amid election fraud accusations against Yanukovych, is popular in the country's west.
The two frontrunners are followed by banker Serhiy Tyhypko with 13.05% of the votes, ex-parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk who secured 6.96% and the country's incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko trailing with 5.33%.
On Monday night, television program Shuster Live published the results of a survey by Ukrainian Research&Branding Group, predicting the support of 44.37% for Yanukovych and 27.67% of the vote for Tymoshenko in the February 7 runoff.
Andrew Wilson, a chief analyst at the General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC), said for a victory, either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko would need to snatch the votes from Tyhypko's supporters.
Wilson said the major winner of the first round of the election is Serhyi Tyhypko, who came third with a significant number of votes. Tyhypko will most likely bring in deciding swing votes,Wilson told RIA Novosti.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Polity foundation, said there was little probability that defeated candidates would forge any agreements.
"I doubt anybody will be willing to share their electorate," the Russian expert said.
Another Russian expert, Viktor Mironenko, said Tymoshenko who "has got reserves" could win the support of both Yatsenyuk's and Yushchenko's electorate which could equalize her chances with those of Yanukovych.
He also advised Yanukovych "to think better of his statements and positions," with Tymoshenko standing "a better chance of winning the votes of defeated candidates' supporters."
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