The FINANCIAL — Eastern Asia has been hard hit by weather-related loss events in the past three decades, according to Munich Re.
Their number has increased by more than a factor of four, causing overall losses from weather-related events of some US$ 700bn during this period. The insured losses of US$ 76bn amounted to only around 10% of overall losses, with 62% of these attributable to Japan. Floods caused 56% of the overall losses in Eastern Asia, but only 30% of insured losses. The number of floods has increased strongly and is expected to increase further in the coming decades. With insured losses of US$ 16bn, the 2011 Thailand floods caused the biggest-ever weather-related insured loss in the region. After floods, it is typhoons that cause the greatest weather-related losses. New analyses indicate a clear cycle of activity for typhoons, and increased typhoon activity is expected over the coming years.
"Typhoon Haiyan, which swept across the Philippines on 8 November, has caused a terrible human catastrophe. It underlines how important analyses and a deep understanding of these weather phenomena are. Governments and insurers need to develop risk-minimisation strategies in order to reduce the number of victims and losses in the future," said Ludger Arnoldussen, Munich Re Board member responsible for Asia-Pacific region.
Nearly half (45%) of all weather-related events in the period under consideration were floods, followed by storms (39%) and forest fires, heatwaves and droughts (16%). A total of 120,000 people have lost their lives since 1980 as a result of these weather catastrophes, 57% from flooding alone, 39% from storm events. Four of the five costliest weather-related catastrophes are also attributable to floods. At US$ 393bn, floods accounted for 56% of overall losses, followed by storms with overall losses of US$ 233bn (34%), according to Munich Re.
"There is no region of Eastern Asia that is immune to the threat of flooding. The reasons for the strong increase in losses from weather catastrophes like floods are primarily socio-economic factors such as continued strong economic growth and the resultant increase in values in exposed regions. Urban agglomerations in coastal regions and rapidly expanding industrial parks located in river deltas are particularly at risk," said Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research unit.
The greatest weather threat after flooding comes from typhoons, which are among the most loss-intensive weather events. Their greatest threat is to urban conurbations in Eastern Asia, especially in Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines, and the burgeoning megacities of Eastern China. The occurrence of typhoons is influenced by periodic climate fluctuations, with phases lasting some 30 years. "In the last ten years, typhoon activity has been below the long-term mean level. Extrapolating these cycles into the future, we expect a phase of higher typhoon activity in the next few years", said Höppe.
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