ADVERTISEMENT
  • News
  • New York
  • Technology
  • Culture
  • Entertainment
  • Sport
  • More
    • Politics
    • Lifestyle
    • TV
    • Games
Sunday, July 20, 2025
  • Login
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
FINCHANNEL
  • Home
  • Business
    • BANKS
      • GeoBanks
    • Finance
    • Insurance
    • Markets
    • Pharmacy
    • Press Releases
    • RealEstate
    • RealEstate
    • Finance
    • Insurance
    • Banks
      • GeoBanks
    • Markets
    • Press Releases
    • Personal Finance
  • World
    • Americas
    • Europe
    • Georgia
      • Media
    • Ukraine
    • Europe
    • Georgia
      • Media
    • Ukraine
    • Americas
    • UK local news
  • Travel
    • Hotels in Georgia
    • Tours in Georgia
  • Videos
    • Promos
    • Soundslides
    • TheClinics
    • TheHoteliers
    • TheUniversities
    • TheHoteliers
    • TheClinics
    • TheUniversities
    • BestWorkplaces
    • Soundslides
    • Promos
    • Banking Forum
      • Promos
      • Soundslides
      • TheClinics
      • TheHoteliers
      • TheUniversities
  • Opinion
    • Editorial
      • Analysis
      • GORBI
      • OP-ED
      • VISA Editorial
    • Analysis
    • Gorbi
    • Book reviews
  • Tech
  • Interview
  • People
    • lifestyle
    • Health & Beauty
      • Coronavirus
    • LifeStyle
    • Employment
      • MyCareer
    • Education
    • Media
    • Celebrities
  • Oil&Auto
    • Auto
    • Energy
  • EN
    • EN
    • GE
  • Home
  • Business
    • BANKS
      • GeoBanks
    • Finance
    • Insurance
    • Markets
    • Pharmacy
    • Press Releases
    • RealEstate
    • RealEstate
    • Finance
    • Insurance
    • Banks
      • GeoBanks
    • Markets
    • Press Releases
    • Personal Finance
  • World
    • Americas
    • Europe
    • Georgia
      • Media
    • Ukraine
    • Europe
    • Georgia
      • Media
    • Ukraine
    • Americas
    • UK local news
  • Travel
    • Hotels in Georgia
    • Tours in Georgia
  • Videos
    • Promos
    • Soundslides
    • TheClinics
    • TheHoteliers
    • TheUniversities
    • TheHoteliers
    • TheClinics
    • TheUniversities
    • BestWorkplaces
    • Soundslides
    • Promos
    • Banking Forum
      • Promos
      • Soundslides
      • TheClinics
      • TheHoteliers
      • TheUniversities
  • Opinion
    • Editorial
      • Analysis
      • GORBI
      • OP-ED
      • VISA Editorial
    • Analysis
    • Gorbi
    • Book reviews
  • Tech
  • Interview
  • People
    • lifestyle
    • Health & Beauty
      • Coronavirus
    • LifeStyle
    • Employment
      • MyCareer
    • Education
    • Media
    • Celebrities
  • Oil&Auto
    • Auto
    • Energy
  • EN
    • EN
    • GE
No Result
View All Result
FINCHANNEL
No Result
View All Result
Home Georgia

Georgia’s Shrinking Population

Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
September 21, 2015
in Georgia
Reading Time: 7 mins read
16
A A
0
Georgia’s Shrinking Population
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The FINANCIAL — According to the population projections of the United Nations (constant fertility scenario), by the end of this century the Georgian people will count only 2.8 million.In 2013, Georgia has been among only 19 countries in the world with a population that decreased year on year.

An aggravating factor is the sex ratio of babies, which in Georgia is heavily skewed towards males.While globally about 107 boys are born per 100 girls, in Georgia 111 boys are born per 100 girls, the fourth highest ratio in the world. Women are the limiting factor when it comes to procreation, and under normal circumstances population growth in the next generation depends on how many girls, not how many boys, are born today. (The troubling sex ratio in Georgia was previously discussed in two articles on the ISET Economist blog: “Sex Ratio at Birth: is the South Caucasus Heading the Way of China?” by Yaroslava Babych and “Toxoplasma Gondii and the ‘Missing Girls’ in the South Caucasus” by Lasha Lanchava). 

Responding to concernsregarding the(economic) future of the Georgian nation, the government initiated a number of counter measures, primarily aiming at increasing the birth rate. There are two questions: (a) are these steps really needed, and (b) can they reverse the downward trend in population size?

RelatedPosts

Georgian Leadership Sent ‘Threatening, Insulting’ Letter To Trump Administration

Council of Europe rep is concerned about intrusive inquiries into NGOs that are at odds with Georgia’s human rights commitments

PACE monitors call for the immediate release of all persons subjected to politically-motivated persecution in Georgia

Living in Suspended Spaces: Casa Sole

WHAT’S THE PROBLEM WITH LESS PEOPLE?

Most economists think thata shrinking populationleads to tremendous economic problems, arguing that the economy will run out of labor,one of the main inputs in the economic production process. 

Yet this reasoning is not as waterproof and unshakable as it isoften presented. What really counts for economic progress is income per capita, and if there are less people in a country, less total output is needed to keep the income per capita constant. The problem is not that a society is shrinking, but it is the shift in the age structure which causes trouble. An ageing population has relatively more old people, who are only consuming what others produce, and relatively less young people, who need to provide for themselves and the pensioners. A shrinking population usually comes along with an unfavorable shift in the age structure, so that both problems are often equated, but this is a dubious practice, as the economic grief caused by an ageing population may differ considerably among countries whose populations decrease at the same rate. Ina high-income country like Japan, life expectancy stands at 83 years, sothat, roughly speaking, on average people arealive for another 18years after they retire (neglecting the fact that 83 years is the life expectancy at birth – the life expectancy of somebody who has reached age 65 iseven higher). In Georgia, on the other hand, life expectancy stands at 73 years, so that people on average consume only about 8 more years after they retire. Therefore, the economic problems caused by an ageing population are way more severe in a country like Japan than in Georgia, though the populations of both countries decrease at a similar pace. 

As the problem is the age structure and not the decline in the population size as such,policies which aim at stimulating the reproduction rate are only indirectly tackling the problem. A more direct approachis to increase the retirement age – a solution which is implemented in some countries, e.g. in Germany, where until 2031 the standard retirement age will be gradually moved to 67 years. If throughout the 21st century, life expectancy in Georgia will soar and the population will age, this will only cause additional economic problems if the retirement age will not be adjusted accordingly.

The standardargument about the economic perils of an ageing society treats labor as a both indispensable and homogeneous input in the production process. In the 21st century, however, we observe that an accelerating automatization takes place, and it is rather unclear how much labor will still be needed in in the production processes of tomorrow. There is no doubtthat certain kinds of labor, namely unskilled work, willhardly be demandedin the future. Germany, together with Japan, has worldwide the biggest problem with its age structure (the positive attitude towards the inflow of refugees is partly driven by an anticipated future shortage of labor), and already today, each German worker has to feed half a pensioner.  Yet while labor is feared to become scarce, the unemployment rate of unskilled workers in Germany stands above 20%, and nobody believes that it will go down again in the upcoming decades. It is clear that what is needed is not any labor, butskilled labor, the supply of which is very often not achieved through measures which stimulate general reproduction rates, as we will argue further down. 

Finally, the global perspective is often neglected in this debate. A world population of about 10 billion, as it is expected by the middle of the century,is not sustainable for the planet, in particular if these people want to live under economically decent circumstances (Nobel Prize laureate Konrad Lorenz makes this point convincingly already in his 1973 book Civilized Man’s Eight Deadly Sins). One may therefore argue that a constant (or temporarily declining) population is an achievement, and instead of being reversed where it has occurred, itshould be realized on a global scale.

See also  Georgian Leadership Sent ‘Threatening, Insulting’ Letter To Trump Administration

FIGHTING THE TREND

The Georgian Dream government began formulating demographic policy goals already in 2013 when it established theDemographic Development Foundation. Inthe same year, relevant changes were made to the labor code. Paid parental leave duration wasextended from 126 to 183 days, unpaid leave from 477 to 730 days, and state payments per baby were increased from 600 to 1000 GEL.In 2014, the Government set up a targeted incentive program, providing the parents of three or more kids with financial assistance of two years after birth. Only people residing in regions which experienced a population decline during the last 2 years are eligible, and benefits varyby settlement type, rangingbetween 150 and 200GEL per month.Just inAugust 2015 the government spent more than half a million larion this program.

The impact of monetary incentives on the birth rate is hotly debated since many decades (see “On Two Schools of the Economics of Fertility” by Warren Sanderson, Population and Development Review2, 469-477, 1976). There is plenty of evidence from high-income countries that the procreation behaviors of those who are well-qualified and have economic opportunities are hardly influenced by some payment that will be received after birth. The consumption opportunities forgone through raising kids can hardly be compensated for by state assistance, and having children may often conflict with the lifestyle and time allocation envisioned by economically successful people. This was already true for 19th century Victorian England, as J.A. Banks writes in one of the first studies on the subject: “The attitude towards the material comforts of modern existence and the growing expensiveness of children and adolescent contributed their share to acceleration in the fall of the family size.” (Prosperity and Parenthood, 1954). Even in the Roman Empire under Emperor Augustus, low birth rates were perceived as a problem and men were fined for not getting married, but according to Tacitus, these attempts were not successful at all. More recently, neither Singapore’s “National Nights”, South Korea’s “Wednesday-Family Days”, nor Japan’s baby robots worked. Only the brutal measures that were taken in Ceaucescu’s Romania, where condoms and any other kinds of contraception were forbidden, and women were forcibly examinedfor pregnancies (which always had to be carried to term), seems to have had an impact, yet this is infeasible and undesirable in a free society. 

The evidence comes from countries, however, which are all well-developed, and this may be an important factor explaining the failure of these programs. Germany is experimenting for a long time with various initiatives to incentivize procreation, which started already under the Nazis, who awarded badges to mothers (the infamous Mutterkreuz, the “Cross of Honor of the German Mother”, which was awarded in three classes for mothers who gave birth to 4, 6, and 8 children). After the war, a plethora of programs which set monetary incentives for reproduction were started, and an important lesson that was learned from these is that people who have low income and lack economic opportunities typically do respond to monetary incentives (for a summary in German language, citing some scientific studies, see “Wo kommen die Kinder her?”,by Carsten Germis and Inge Kloepfer, in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of 12/04/2009). Therefore, in Georgia, where incomes are low and big parts of the population suffer from a lack of economic opportunities, it may well be the case that monetary incentives will make a difference!

This is confirmed by data. According to the 2013 CRRC Caucasus Barometer, slightly less than half of Georgians considered three to be the ideal number of kids for a family. The fact that there is a clear mismatch between thesewishes and reality seems to be related to concerns about the economic circumstances in which children will grow up. Those who are more optimistic about the future of their children have stronger preferences for having more children. 

KEEP THE WOMEN IN GEORGIA!

Future policies should be driven by another aspect not mentioned so far. In 2013, Georgia had more births than deaths, and if there was no net emigration, the population would grow, not decline!There are only four countries in the world where net emigration is responsible for the population decline, reversing an otherwise positive population trend, namely Albania, Georgia, Puerto Rico, and Spain.

Therefore, one of the most promising strategies would be to implement gender-minded policies which reduce the emigration of women of childbearing age, as for many young women, it simply seems to be unattractive to stay in this country. Sweden, which managed to increase fertility rates almost up to replacement level, has achieved thisthanks to gender-minded policies (Sweden is number one in the 2012 Women’s Economic Opportunity Report, while Georgia is on place 59). Such changes may require policies that take into account the attitudes of people. In Georgia, the law does not openly discriminate against women, and even fathers can use paternity leave after a child was born. But almost no man makes use of this opportunity. In Sweden, on the other hand, there are bonuses for parents who split their parental leaves, and certain free days of parental leave are only available to fathers.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that many Georgian young women who leavethe country for work or studydo not come back to marry their Georgian sweethearts. This may be due to antiquated gender roles, which are still deeply rooted in in the mentalities of many Georgians, making it difficult forambitious women to combine their private and professional lives in this country.

Addressing this issue will be necessary if the Georgian people want to prevent extinction in the long run. 

 

Related Posts

Georgian Leadership Sent ‘Threatening, Insulting’ Letter To Trump Administration
Americas

Georgian Leadership Sent ‘Threatening, Insulting’ Letter To Trump Administration

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 7, 2025
0

In an interview with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service in Tbilisi on July 3, Dunnigan laid bare how ties between the two...

Read more
Council of Europe rep is concerned about intrusive inquiries into NGOs that are at odds with Georgia’s human rights commitments

Council of Europe rep is concerned about intrusive inquiries into NGOs that are at odds with Georgia’s human rights commitments

July 1, 2025
PACE monitors call for the immediate release of all persons subjected to politically-motivated persecution in Georgia

PACE monitors call for the immediate release of all persons subjected to politically-motivated persecution in Georgia

June 28, 2025
Living in Suspended Spaces: Casa Sole

Living in Suspended Spaces: Casa Sole

June 27, 2025

Discussion about this post

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
Teaching porn literacy

A sizable percentage of internet porn users, roughly 40% are women

January 17, 2024
Ampersand wins £22m five-year contract at London Zoo

Ampersand wins £22m five-year contract at London Zoo

June 25, 2012
EasyJet to fly to London from Stockholm Arlanda

The London Diplomatic List, Addresses, Contacts & Working Hours

January 23, 2023
OCCRP investigation: Danish Company Affiliate Helping Russians Export Grain From Occupied Ukraine

OCCRP investigation: Danish Company Affiliate Helping Russians Export Grain From Occupied Ukraine

July 16, 2025
Teaching porn literacy

Teaching porn literacy

January 17, 2024
OCCRP investigation: Danish Company Affiliate Helping Russians Export Grain From Occupied Ukraine

OCCRP investigation: Danish Company Affiliate Helping Russians Export Grain From Occupied Ukraine

July 16, 2025
How Mark Lamberti Challenged Retail Convention in the Last Days of Apartheid

How Mark Lamberti Challenged Retail Convention in the Last Days of Apartheid

July 16, 2025
Existing-Home Sales Spring Ahead in March

Should You Fix Up Your House or Sell It As-Is?

July 15, 2025
Richard Branson: What’s one daily habit that has shaped you as a person?

Richard Branson: What’s one daily habit that has shaped you as a person?

July 11, 2025
Most Americans continue to say media scrutiny keeps politicians from doing things they shouldn’t

Dramatic rise in the number of journalists killed in six months



July 11, 2025
ADVERTISEMENT

Popular Last 24h

  • Ampersand wins £22m five-year contract at London Zoo

    Ampersand wins £22m five-year contract at London Zoo

    4180 shares
    Share 1672 Tweet 1045
  • Prominent Georgian Businessman Behind Euronews and National Geographic Arrested in Tbilisi

    172 shares
    Share 69 Tweet 43
  • Wall Street Giants Now Worth $59.7 Trillion, More Than the GDP of the U.S., China, and Germany Combined

    115 shares
    Share 46 Tweet 29
  • Global study shows 96% plan to increase yield focus in anticipation of market correction

    135 shares
    Share 54 Tweet 34
  • Are You Really Targeting the Right Customer

    120 shares
    Share 48 Tweet 30
  • The London Diplomatic List, Addresses, Contacts & Working Hours

    3407 shares
    Share 1363 Tweet 852
  • Is Roblox Premium Worth It? Breaking Down the Benefits for Gamers

    94 shares
    Share 38 Tweet 24

LATEST POSTS

OCCRP investigation: Danish Company Affiliate Helping Russians Export Grain From Occupied Ukraine

OCCRP investigation: Danish Company Affiliate Helping Russians Export Grain From Occupied Ukraine

July 16, 2025
How Mark Lamberti Challenged Retail Convention in the Last Days of Apartheid

How Mark Lamberti Challenged Retail Convention in the Last Days of Apartheid

July 16, 2025
Existing-Home Sales Spring Ahead in March

Should You Fix Up Your House or Sell It As-Is?

July 15, 2025
Richard Branson: What’s one daily habit that has shaped you as a person?

Richard Branson: What’s one daily habit that has shaped you as a person?

July 11, 2025
Most Americans continue to say media scrutiny keeps politicians from doing things they shouldn’t

Dramatic rise in the number of journalists killed in six months



July 11, 2025
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €7.3 bn

Trade talks EU–US: Trade in services should be taken into account

July 11, 2025
Private Equity Giant H.I.G. Capital Nets Strong Returns on Jewelry Brand While Betting Big on Canadian Fuel Services

Private Equity Giant H.I.G. Capital Nets Strong Returns on Jewelry Brand While Betting Big on Canadian Fuel Services

July 11, 2025
Update by The Florida Department of Transportation: Key Improvements

Update by The Florida Department of Transportation: Key Improvements

July 11, 2025
Smart Storage: Creative Ways Mini-Storage Buildings Are Meeting Modern Needs

Smart Storage: Creative Ways Mini-Storage Buildings Are Meeting Modern Needs

July 11, 2025
Moldova’s Virtual IT Park Attracts Global Attention with Record Growth and €1 Billion Revenue Target

Moldova’s Virtual IT Park Attracts Global Attention with Record Growth and €1 Billion Revenue Target

July 9, 2025

LATESTBUSINESS

Existing-Home Sales Spring Ahead in March

Should You Fix Up Your House or Sell It As-Is?

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 15, 2025
0

Private Equity Giant H.I.G. Capital Nets Strong Returns on Jewelry Brand While Betting Big on Canadian Fuel Services

Private Equity Giant H.I.G. Capital Nets Strong Returns on Jewelry Brand While Betting Big on Canadian Fuel Services

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 11, 2025
0

Smart Storage: Creative Ways Mini-Storage Buildings Are Meeting Modern Needs

Smart Storage: Creative Ways Mini-Storage Buildings Are Meeting Modern Needs

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 11, 2025
0

Moldova’s Virtual IT Park Attracts Global Attention with Record Growth and €1 Billion Revenue Target

Moldova’s Virtual IT Park Attracts Global Attention with Record Growth and €1 Billion Revenue Target

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 9, 2025
0

wall_street_sign.jpg

Wall Street Giants Now Worth $59.7 Trillion, More Than the GDP of the U.S., China, and Germany Combined

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 9, 2025
0

Are You Really Targeting the Right Customer

Are You Really Targeting the Right Customer

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 8, 2025
0

Prominent Georgian Businessman Behind Euronews and National Geographic Arrested in Tbilisi

Prominent Georgian Businessman Behind Euronews and National Geographic Arrested in Tbilisi

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 7, 2025
0

Etisalat and Ericsson trial Massive MIMO technology in the UAE

Global study shows 96% plan to increase yield focus in anticipation of market correction

by Nino Doghonadze and Florian Biermann
July 7, 2025
0

GET IN TOUCH

Submit guest post/Letters to the Editor:

editor (at) finchannel.com

Sales & Marketing: (+995 558) 03 03 03 Email: marketing (at) finchannel.com

Whatsup: (+995 599) 96 52 52

Georgia:

(+995 599) 96 52 52 Email: editor (@) finchannel.com

Postal address: 17 Mtskheta str. Tbilisi, Georgia 0179 The FINANCIAL

RESOURCE

  • Work at the FINANCIAL
  • ePaper
  • Advertise in The FINANCIAL
  • Access ePaper
  • Guest posts
  • Contributed articles
  • AmericanStockNews
  • Coupon Codes
  • GLOSSY MAG
American Culture Center
ACC Partner

GUIDEBOOK

  • Meet our team
  • Invest in Georgia
  • Become contributor
  • Archive

FOLLOW US

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google+
  • Youtube
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
    • BANKS
      • GeoBanks
    • Finance
    • Insurance
    • Markets
    • Pharmacy
    • Press Releases
    • RealEstate
    • RealEstate
    • Finance
    • Insurance
    • Banks
      • GeoBanks
    • Markets
    • Press Releases
    • Personal Finance
  • World
    • Americas
    • Europe
    • Georgia
      • Media
    • Ukraine
    • Europe
    • Georgia
      • Media
    • Ukraine
    • Americas
    • UK local news
  • Travel
    • Hotels in Georgia
    • Tours in Georgia
  • Videos
    • Promos
    • Soundslides
    • TheClinics
    • TheHoteliers
    • TheUniversities
    • TheHoteliers
    • TheClinics
    • TheUniversities
    • BestWorkplaces
    • Soundslides
    • Promos
    • Banking Forum
      • Promos
      • Soundslides
      • TheClinics
      • TheHoteliers
      • TheUniversities
  • Opinion
    • Editorial
      • Analysis
      • GORBI
      • OP-ED
      • VISA Editorial
    • Analysis
    • Gorbi
    • Book reviews
  • Tech
  • Interview
  • People
    • lifestyle
    • Health & Beauty
      • Coronavirus
    • LifeStyle
    • Employment
      • MyCareer
    • Education
    • Media
    • Celebrities
  • Oil&Auto
    • Auto
    • Energy
  • EN
    • EN
    • GE

© 2025 Intelligence Group llc

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In

Add New Playlist

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.