The FINANCIAL — As promised in my previous column, this week I present comparative data about Georgians’ sentiment towards the two countries that “should be friends” and their top politicians. The trend data is based on GORBI’s nationwide representative surveys conducted among 1,000 or more adult Georgians per wave since 2009.
Over the past 10 years or so, despite political turmoil and war with Russia, a majority of Georgian citizens held favorable attitudes towards American presidents. Favorability ratings of the United States as a whole were comparable or even higher than the US president’s figures. Not surprisingly, the situation is different when it comes to feelings towards Russia and its leadership. Mr. Putin’s favorability rating was close to zero in 2009 right after his nation’s “glorious” victory over Georgia. Putin was technically not the president at the time (having swapped it for the prime minister’s role), and with big apologies to former president Medvedev, I have included only the top politician’s ratings in Chart 1. However, in the last 7 years it had quintupled, garnering 15% of the Georgian publics’ favorability in the August 2014 survey. If this trend continues, Russia’s top leader favorability rating would reach 50% by 2025 and 70% by 2030.
Of course, it is hard to imagine all other things being held equal, and favorability ratings can obviously change overnight due to any number of circumstances, and there are many positive possible scenarios. But still, one should not exclude the possibility of Putin remaining in power into his late seventies.
In contrast, Georgian attitudes towards Russia as a country are significantly positive. Favorable views towards Russia increased by 26 percentage points between 2009 and 2013, but then melted after Russia brought the Crimean peninsula back under its jurisdiction with the help of “nice green men,” and major hostilities erupted in eastern Ukraine with the direct involvement of Russian troops. Interestingly, Mr. Putin’s favorability rating has increased by 5% since 2013.
Without the direct intention to explain this phenomenon, in parallel I present data from The HITT-CIS project – “Health in Times of Transition: Trends in Population Health and Health Policies in CIS Countries,” which was an FP7-Health collaborative research project funded by the EU-FP7 Programme (2009-2013). GORBI was in charge of data collection for the Caucasus countries and I can also present comparative data for the other five former Soviet bloc republics (Kazakhstan, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and Moldova).
Chart 1. Positive attitudes towards countries and presidents (%)
Source: GORBI nationwide surveys. NB. “Very favorable” and “favorable” answers are combined.
Respondents in all countries were asked batteries of questions from which I chose two: how post-Soviet man feels about democracy and commonly shared Soviet past.
Chart 2: To what extent do you agree with the following statements?
Source: HITT 8 country surveys. NB. “agree” and “quite agree” answers are combined.
As it seen from the Chart 2, both democracy as a form of government and a hypothetical restoration of a communist system have approval of the majority of citizens across the region. Fortunately, democracy has significantly more fans among these populations compared to the old system. Regardless, at first glance the question should arise – how could such opposing forms of governance exist side by side in the minds of people? There should be more than one answer, even per each country. I don’t have any on hand but I can give a hint when it comes to Georgia.
The same survey revealed that Georgians were the most pessimistic when assessing their own lives in general and their household’s financial situation compared to all other countries. Thus, the desire to live in a democracy but with the benefits of a Soviet style economic and healthcare system could be the reason, even if it sounds too good to be true outside the few remaining Western European welfare sates.
Besides US and Russian presidents, GORBI measures ratings of several presidents and key politicians in neighboring countries, the European Union and other Western democracies. While analyzing Meta data over many years, I came to my own, not scientific conclusion: Presidents of democratic states enjoy higher favorability ratings in Georgia than in their respective countries and vice versa, i.e., presidents of none democratic countries enjoy higher ratings at home compared to what they have in Georgian minds.
GORBI is a regional hub for partner organizations and international clients. Since 2003, GORBI remains an exclusive member of Gallup International research network for its two decades of experience in survey research in post-Soviet Union countries, as well as Mongolia and Iraq. All surveys were conducted on a national representative sample of 1,000 or more respondents; data retains a 3% margin of error, with confidence at 95%. This data was provided exclusively to the Financial. Please do not visit our site ( www.gorbi.com ); it is under construction.
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