Two years have passed since Georgia’s parliamentary elections brought the Georgian Dream to power at the expense of the United National Movement. As in any tight race, promises were made that would prove hard to deliver. But while GD’s principal message was restoration of justice, improving the economy was the key promise of both parties.
Of course this has historical precedent. We were also hearing plenty of promises during the 2008 presidential elections when Mr. Saakashvili was re-elected in what was a very democratically flawed election, perhaps even worse than the 2003 parliamentary elections, which provoked the peaceful yet unconstitutional overthrow of president Shevardnadze. One of the most straightforward was made by the late tycoon Mr. Patarkatsishvili. In a written appeal to the public, he declared: “Whatever this ruling gang (UNM) will promise, whatever sum of money they offer for the country’s budget and development, my contribution would be twice as much. Simply multiply by 2 each of their promises.”
After coming to power, the GD immediately embarked on several reforms, some have been successful, others are still pending. While the economy continues to grow, pensions are a bit higher than 2 years ago and prices are a bit lower for some products. Perhaps the most successful changes occurred in the healthcare system – government is providing free care to all in need and it is working!
However, there are still some issues that I can’t fully comprehend. For example, despite the dramatic decrease in the price of crude oil (over 20% compared to 2012) it is not adequately reflected in Georgia. Perhaps we are using a different formula when it comes to valuing certain commodities? Nevertheless, we pollsters can only measure public sentiments about the economy and politicians could compare their rhetoric with our feelings and make their own verdict about the true quality of economic achievements.
Today, 16% of population assesses the economic situation in Georgia positively, while a big majority (80%) views it negatively. The trend has been fluctuating over the past two years depending on political events (we had presidential and local elections since 2012), but it remains strongly negative. The same gloomy yet slightly more positive picture applies to Georgian’s assessment of their family’s financial situation. Nowadays, only 28% of respondents think that their family is doing well economically, while a big majority, seven out of ten (70%) respondents considers their own family’s economic situation as bad.
When it comes to the future, Georgians are more optimistic, as always. About 4 out of 10 (41%) Georgians think that the financial situation of their family and country over the next 12 months will improve. Optimism is good and it is what drives the economy faster; however, it is hard to manage deteriorating expectations. Regardless of economic sentiments, the good news is that Georgians’ Euro-Atlantic aspirations remain strong, as with their negative assessment of the current economic situation.
In the group of charts, we present trend data on economic optimism as well as current feelings regarding the economy.
Charts 1-4. What do people think about current and future economic situation?
Source: GORBI, Georgian nationwide surveys.
If public sentiment continues to be negative and if we succeed in producing a truly strong opposition, GD would have a very difficult time achieving the same victory.
Despite these survey figures and the fulfilled or failed promises, a couple of things remains certain. Until recently, Georgians were thinking about war and wars were happening. We were either shooting each other in military coups or at invading Russian soldiers. With the arrival of GD, we have stopped thinking about fighting. However, we may be closer to another war with Russia than ever, and if war is inevitable, it is better to spend less time thinking and more time getting prepared.
Since 2003, GORBI remains an exclusive member of Gallup International research network for its two decades of experience in survey research in post-Soviet Union countries, as well as Mongolia and Iraq. The survey was conducted on a national representative sample of 1,000 respondents; data retains a 3% margin of error, with confidence at 95%. This data was provided exclusively to the Financial. Please do not visit our site (www.gorbi.com ); it is under construction.
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