India and Pakistan could be on the brink of war, with India launching air strikes on Pakistani territory following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. Locals report a heavy exchange of artillery fire in the disputed Kashmir region and both sides claim to have inflicted casualties on the other
In the event that war between the two nations did break out, how big an impact do Britons think that would have on the world?
28% expect it to have a “major” impact, while the most common answer is a “moderate” impact, at 38%
Only 11% think the impact would only be “minor”, and 3% say there wouldn’t be any at all
But how do these perceptions compare to the impact of actual conflicts currently taking place?
The results for the India-Pakistan war are very similar to those for the Israel-Hamas conflict, which 30% see as having had a major impact on the rest of the world and 38% a moderate one
Britons are much more likely to see the Ukraine war as having made a major mark, with 50% saying so, and an additional 35% saying it has had a moderate impact
British Pakistanis: Approximately 1.6 million people in the UK identify as Pakistani, making them the second-largest ethnic minority group and the second-largest subgroup of British Asians.
British Indians: Approximately 1.9 million people identify as Indian, making them the largest ethnic minority population in the UK.
These figures are primarily for England and Wales, as Scotland and Northern Ireland conduct separate censuses. For precise UK-wide data, additional information from the respective statistical offices would be needed.
Historical Background
Origins in 1947 Partition: The conflict began with the Partition of British India, creating a Muslim-majority Pakistan and a Hindu-majority India. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with a Muslim majority but a Hindu ruler (Maharaja), was given the choice to accede to either nation. The Maharaja initially sought independence but joined India for military aid against invading Pakistani herders, triggering the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-48.
Subsequent Wars: Tensions escalated into wars in 1965 (over Kashmir) and 1971 (over East Pakistan, leading to Bangladesh’s independence). The 1972 Simla Agreement established the Line of Control (LOC), dividing Kashmir into Indian- and Pakistani-administered regions.
Nuclear Dimension: India’s nuclear test in 1974 and Pakistan’s in 1998 raised the stakes, making the conflict a global concern due to the risk of nuclear escalation.
Ongoing Violence: Since 1989, Pakistan has supported resistance movements in Indian-administered Kashmir, fueling communal violence and insurgency. Periodic skirmishes along the LOC persist despite a shaky ceasefire since 2003.
Recent Developments (2025)
Pahalgam Attack: A deadly militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, killed 26 civilians, marking the worst attack on civilians in over two decades. India attributed the attack to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), via its proxy The Resistance Front (TRF), though Pakistan denied involvement.
India launched Operation Sindoor on May 6, 2025, targeting nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, alleging these were militant planning bases.
Both nations exchanged gunfire across the LOC, downgraded diplomatic ties, expelled personnel, closed border crossings, and suspended trade.
India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, prompting Pakistan to declare any water diversion an “act of war.” Pakistan also threatened to suspend the Simla Agreement.
The confrontation is the most significant since 2019, when a similar attack led to Indian airstrikes. Unlike 2019, the current situation shows fewer signs of de-escalation, with India’s aggressive posture under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and domestic pressure to respond to perceived security failures.
]The nuclear capabilities of both nations amplify fears of a broader conflict. The U.S., while historically closer to Pakistan, has not mediated, with some Trump administration officials expressing support for India’s anti-terrorism stance.
Kashmir remains a nuclear flashpoint, with militant activity and cross-border tensions threatening regional stability.
Modi’s 2019 revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy (Article 370) aimed to stabilize the region but has fueled unrest, undermining claims of peace.
International Implications: The conflict affects U.S. interests due to the risk of nuclear escalation and regional instability. The lack of U.S. mediation and deteriorating U.S.-Pakistan ties since the Afghanistan withdrawal complicate diplomacy.
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