The FINANCIAL — Seven-in-ten Indians are dissatisfied with the way things are going in India today, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
And, with the Indian parliamentary elections just weeks away, the Indian public, by a margin of more than three-to-one, would prefer the Hindu-nationalist opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to lead the next Indian government rather than the Indian National Congress (INC), which heads the current left-of-center governing coalition.
By a margin of better than two-to-one, the public says the BJP would do a better job on each of a half dozen challenges facing the nation – from combating corruption to fighting terrorism. And the BJP candidate for prime minister, Narendra Modi, the chief minister of the state of Gujarat, is more popular than putative Congress party prime ministerial candidate Rahul Gandhi, grandson and son of former Indian prime ministers. These are the findings from a Pew Research Center survey conducted between December 7, 2013 and January 12, 2014. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 2,464 randomly selected adults at their place of residence, in states and territories that are home to roughly 91% of the Indian population. The margin of error is 3.8%, according to Pew Research Center.
Dissatisfaction with recent developments in India is remarkably widespread: among both BJP supporters and Congress backers; among young and old; among rich and poor; and among city dwellers and rural residents. But views of the major parties vary across the country, with support for a BJP-led government strongest in the north of India. However, backing for the BJP is roughly equal in both rural and urban areas despite Congress’s deep roots in rural India and its efforts to cement rural political support through employment and food security programs.
The 2014 Indian election will select 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the national parliament. The new Lok Sabha will elect the prime minister, who will then name a cabinet.
There will be 788 million eligible voters in the upcoming election, including nearly 150 million who will have become eligible to vote for the first time since the last national election five years ago. In that 2009 parliamentary election voter turnout was 58%, according to Pew Research Center.
India has a winner-take-all electoral system, so whoever gets the most votes in a given constituency wins that seat. No single party has won a parliamentary majority since 1989, so recent governments have involved coalitions of smaller regional parties led by either the BJP or Congress. The Pew Research survey does not directly ask about vote choice or the likelihood that a respondent will vote, and it cannot gauge the level of support for either the BJP or Congress in particular constituencies. But it reveals a widespread desire among Indians for a change in leadership.
Just 29% of Indians are satisfied with the way things are going in India today; 70% are dissatisfied. Such disgruntlement cuts across various demographic groups: men (72%) and women (67%); Indians age 18 to 29 (72%) and those 50 years of age and older (69%); those with a primary school education or less (67%) and those with a college education or more (75%); and people living in urban areas (72%) and those in rural areas (68%).
More than six-in-ten Indians (63%) prefer the BJP to lead the next Indian national government. Just two-in-ten (19%) pick the Indian National Congress. Other parties have the support of 12% of the public. BJP backing is consistent across age groups. And support is almost equal between rural (64%) and urban (60%) Indians, according to Pew Research Center.
Discussion about this post