The illegal attack by Israel, a nuclear-armed state, against the Iranian leadership and nuclear sites may somewhat delay but cannot prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and is likely to have the opposite effect.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to attack Iran was clearly designed to sabotage the U.S.-Iranian negotiations, which had seemed to be advancing toward an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons potential.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who said there was no direct U.S. involvement in executing Israeli attacks, seems now to want to use the Israeli attacks to coerce concessions from Iran at the negotiating table.
However, Netayanhu’s resort to violence makes it far less likely that Trump’s stated preference for a negotiated solution will be realized. If Iran continues planned negotiation with the United States, its positions will be hardened, not relaxed, as a result of Israel’s actions.
In addition to immediately undermining the U.S. effort to reach a diplomatic agreement, Netanyahu’s decision to strike Iran militarily will likely lead to an acceleration of its uranium enrichment activities and in a less transparent manner that will be more difficult for IAEA inspectors to monitor.
As a political response to the Israeli attack, Iran’s leaders are more likely to announce their intention to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The nuclear hawk in Jerusalem has strengthened the influence of the nuclear hawks in Tehran.
The U.S. intelligence community, the U.S. military, and nonproliferation specialists all agree: military strikes cannot destroy Iran’s extensive nuclear infrastructure, which has advanced greatly since Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Military action against Iran’s nuclear program can slow its progress, but at the cost of strengthening Tehran’s resolve to advance its sensitive nuclear activities and possibly proceed to weaponization, a step it has not taken up to this point.
Israel’s unilateral actions should not disrupt the U.S. administration’s determination to negotiate an effective, verifiable nonproliferation agreement focused on severely limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity and its uranium stockpiles and enhancing international monitoring and verification.
We call on all responsible states to condemn Israel’s attacks on Iran and call for an end to further hostilities and a return to serious negotiations.
Although the actions of Israel make the stated U.S. goal of an effective diplomatic agreement to block Iran’s pathways to the Bomb less likely, it remains the best, if not the only way, to prevent a 10th nuclear-armed state.
###
The Arms Control Association is an independent, membership-based organization dedicated to providing authoritative information and practical policy solutions to address the threats posed by the world’s most dangerous weapons.
Discussion about this post