The FINANCIAL — A hung parliament at the next UK election is predicted by four experts in the new LSE Election Experts Blog.
Professor Simon Hix and Nick Vivyan of the Department of Government at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) predict a 67% probability of some form of hung parliament, with the Conservatives six seats short of a majority. David Cameron could become PM and govern alone on this basis, but would need the support of Northern Ireland Unionists. Hix and Vivyan see no chance of an outright Labour victory, and a one third chance of a clear Tory majority.
This prediction is essentially echoed by a longer-run econometric model based on voters' economic expectations put forward by Professor David Sanders of the University of Essex, also on the Blog. Both presentations were given at the LSE British Election Conference 2010 and are available for download online.
Professor Patrick Dunleavy of LSE Public Policy Group commented: 'It is significant that two very sophisticated but very different scientific prediction methods have generated clear 'hung Parliament' results. In addition, the latest (10 March) poll tracker on the LSE Election blog shows that the median Tory lead over Labour is now down to just 5 percentage points – meaning that a three per cent shift in Labour's favour could throw the election outcome wide open'.
The Experts Election Blog will be updated regularly with research, predictions and comment by academics around LSE and beyond. Other contributors include Professor Emeritus Rodney Barker, LSE Government Department, and Charlie Beckett, director of media think-tank POLIS.
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