Weekly Market Watch

Weekly Market Watch

Weekly Market Watch

The FINANCIAL -- ECONOMY -- Inflation was 2.2% y/y and 1.3% m/m in January 2019. Annual CPI inflation was 2.2% in January 2019 up from 1.5% in previous month, according to Geostat.

Core inflation was 1.7% in January 2019 up from 0.9% recorded in previous month. Annual price changes were driven by price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.2% y/y, +1.00ppts), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+10.1% y/y, +0.66ppts) and healthcare (+3.4% y/y, +0.28ppts) categories, while prices were down in clothing and footwear (-8.8% y/y, -0.32ppts). On a monthly basis, there was 1.3% inflation in January 2019, affected by price increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages category (+3.2% m/m, +0.98ppts) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+5.8% y/y, +0.39ppts).

Tourist arrivals up 5.9% y/y in January 2019
Total international visits to Georgia decreased by 0.6% y/y to 0.44mn in January 2019, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Decline in overall visits was affected by fall in same-day arrivals, while tourists arrivals increased by 5.9% y/y (0.31mn trips, 70.0% of total). Out of top countries, in January 2019, international visitors increased from Russia (+16.8% y/y), Ukraine (3.6% y/y) and Israel (+132.1% y/y), while visitors were down from Azerbaijan (-3.4% y/y), Armenia (-5.0% y/y) and Turkey (-20.2% y/y).

International reserves stood at US$ 3.4bn in January 2019
Gross international reserves were up 10.9% y/y to US$ 3.4bn in January 2019 according to NBG. Change in reserves was attributed to FX auctions (total purchase of US$ 85.0mn in January), government FX operations and/or asset revaluation.

NBG purchased US$ 15.0mn
On 6 February 2019, the NBG intervened on the FX market and purchased US$ 15.0mn. The NBG purchased US$ 100mn YTD on its 7 FX auctions.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: Bank of Georgia Group Eurobonds (GEBGG) closed at 6.3% yield, trading at 98.9 (+0.1% w/w). Bank of Georgia GEL-denominated Eurobonds (GEBGG) were trading at 99.5 (-1.0 w/w), yielding 10.6%. Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 91.4 (+0.3% w/w), yielding 8.2%.
GOGC Eurobonds (GEOROG) were trading at 101.8 (-0.4% w/w), yielding 5.9%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at a premium at 105.6 (-0.1% w/w), yielding 5.9%.
Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 106.1 (+0.1% w/w) at 3.9% yield to maturity. Georgia Eurobonds, YTM (%)

Equities

Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 15.85/share (-0.54% w/w and +9.55% m/m). More than 227k shares traded in the range of GBP 15.49 – 16.05/share. Average daily traded volume was 59k in the last 4 weeks. FTSE 250 Index, of which BGEO is a constituent, lost 0.77 % w/w and gained 2.70% m/m. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.46% of its capitalization.

Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 11.14/share (+1.29% w/w and +9.67% m/m). More than 128k shares traded in the range of GBP 10.80 – 11.14/share. Average daily traded volume was 23k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.34% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 14.08 (-3.03% w/w and -5.38% m/m). More than 52k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 13.82 – 14.96/share. Average daily traded volume was 18k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.10% of its capitalization.

Georgia Healthcare Group (GHG LN) shares closed at GBP 2.35/share (+3.07% w/w and +21.13% m/m). More than 95k shares were traded in the range of GBP 2.21 – 2.35/share. Average daily traded volume was 81k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of GHG shares traded was at 0.07% of its capitalization. BGEO Group PLC (BGEO LN)

Money Market

Ministry of Finance T-Bills: 1-year GEL 40.0mn (US$ 15.1mn) T-Bills of Ministry of Finance were sold at the auction held at NBG on February 5, 2019. The weighted average yield was fixed at 6.890%. The nearest treasury securities auction is scheduled for February 12, 2019, where GEL 40.0mn nominal value 2-year Benchmark Bonds and GEL 20.0mm 6-months T-Bills will be sold.

 

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