Countries participating (or at least included) in European Union’s Eastern Partnership program (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Russia and Moldova) share similar pasts but all face different and myriad challenges (some related to security, others economic and political), which undoubtedly affect public mood. It follows that while citizens in some countries are rather satisfied with everyday life, people of other states feel as if their luck has run out.
Promise of a Bright Future was something I remember hearing from Soviet leaders while growing up and dreaming about my own future. Those leaders are long gone and the Bright Future ended in Georgians’ long Sadgegrdzelo (toast in Georgian) list. When President Shevardnadze was ousted in November of 2003, most Georgians began expressing higher expectations for the future, a pattern that continued after regime change was repeated in 2012.
Based on the EU Neighbourhood Barometer, more than half (53%) of surveyed respondents in Georgia have record high positive expectations for the next twelve months, compared to other countries. Ukrainians were the least optimistic (22%) and Russians were a close second (25%). However, it should be noted that the fieldwork was conducted in late December 2013 and early January 2014 and the current hostilities in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s support for the rebels likely have had a major impact on public mood. Therefore, I am not including Russia and Ukraine in the textual analysis below.
Based on the same survey results, weak signs of increasing positive expectations regarding respondents’ lives in general exist throughout the Eastern Partnership region.
People in the Eastern Partnership countries are slightly more likely to expect their lives in general to be better in the next twelve months (28%, +2 percentage points since the spring of 2013); more think that things will remain the same (43%, -4) and fear that things will be worse (13%, -1).
The survey also revealed that citizens’ expectations of their lives in general over the next 12 months continue to be predominantly neutral in most countries:
Life in general will be the same: Belarus (49%) and Moldova (42%).
Life in general will be better: Georgia (53%), Azerbaijan (44%) and Armenia (41%).
A positive trend is observed in most Eastern Partnership countries since the previous wave of the survey:
Optimism has gained some ground particularly in Azerbaijan and Moldova (+6 percentage points both). In contrast, expectations have worsened especially in Belarus where considerably fewer respondents now expect that the situation will be better (-7 percentage points) and more fear that things will be worse (+7).
Table: Expectations for the next twelve months:
| Better | Difference Aut. 2012 – Sp. Win. 2013-2014 | Worse | Difference Aut. 2012 – Sp. Win. 2013-2014 | Same | Difference Aut. 2012 – Sp. Win. 2013-2014 |
ENPI East | 28 | +2 | 13 | -1 | 43 | -4 |
Azerbaijan | 44 | +6 | 13 | -7 | 29 | -12 |
Moldova | 34 | +6 | 13 | -4 | 42 | = |
Armenia | 41 | +4 | 17 | -5 | 38 | +2 |
Georgia | 53 | +2 | 6 | = | 25 | = |
Ukraine | 22 | +2 | 12 | -2 | 46 | -4 |
Belarus | 24 | -7 | 18 | +7 | 49 | +1 |
Russia | 25 | -7 | 14 | +5 | 52 | -1 |
Source: ENPI barometer nationwide surveys. Note: numbers are given in percentages.
Finally, socio-economic factors, which influence respondents’ expectations, have remained the same throughout the three waves of the survey:
Young respondents are considerably more likely than their older counterparts to anticipate that their lives in general will be better in the next 12 months;
Similarly, respondents with a higher socio-economic status, evidenced by their self-positioning on the social scale and their ability to pay bills, have more positive expectations of their lives in general;
Satisfaction with the democratic situation in the country is also linked to more optimistic expectations of life in general.
The next wave of the EU Neighbourhood Barometer will be conducted this fall and will reflect the current mood of a region marred by geopolitical tensions. I will with pleasure present comparative analysis of public sentiments and in the meantime I am looking forward to the “Bright Future.”
Data is based on the EU Neighbourhood Barometer, conducted on behalf of the European Commission’s Development and Cooperation Office, Europe Aid (Unit F4). As part of a larger consortium, GORBI led the data collection in all countries except Russia.All 7 surveys were conducted on a national representative sample of 1,000 respondents or more; data retains a 3% margin of error, with confidence at 95%.Please do not visit our site ( www.gorbi.com ); it is under construction.
