The new book “Race to Space”, co-authored by former German Ambassador Prof. Dr. Heinrich Kreft and journalist Andreas Dripke, delves into the growing economisation and militarisation of space. The 288-page book explores how Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson are leading the charge in space exploration, while also examining the roles of NASA, ESA, China, and Russia. The book covers virtually every aspect of space travel – from its origins to the evolving roles of state and private players, the emerging markets of space tourism and mining, including asteroid and planetary resource extraction, and the ambitious plans for colonising the Moon and Mars.
USA: Leading Ahead Due to a Fundamentally Different Economic Model in the “Space Race”
The two authors argue that the USA holds a significant lead in both rocket development and satellite operations, a position that will be hard for Europe to overcome. Europe’s latest rocket model, Ariane 6 (set for its first flight on July 9, 2024), is “at least a generation” behind SpaceX’s Falcon 9 (which first flew on June 4, 2010). The key difference lies in reusability: while Ariane 6 is a single-use rocket with no reusable components, the Falcon 9’s first stage and parts of its payload fairing return to Earth and can be reused on subsequent flights. Reusability is a critical cost factor, especially when launching satellites into space. SpaceX’s Starship (first orbital flight on May 5, 2021), which is roughly twice the size of Ariane 6, can carry about five times the payload into space. Like Ariane 6, Starship is still facing technical challenges, with test flights being delayed or even resulting in explosions. “But once the teething problems are resolved, the USA will have a rocket in Starship that is two generations ahead of the Ariane 6,” said Andreas Dripke.
According to the book, the USA’s lead in the “space race” is due to a fundamentally different economic approach. Europe continues to rely on the cost-plus model previously used by NASA. In this approach, government space agencies spend years developing detailed plans for rockets or satellites, including precise technical specifications, and then commission traditional aerospace companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin (formerly Martin Marietta), Northrop Grumman, Airbus, or ArianeSpace to build them. These companies are allowed to add an 8 to 10 percent markup on the costs they incur as profit (‘cost-plus’). The result: the more expensive and time-consuming the project, the higher the companies’ profits. This business model provides no incentive to build rockets as cheaply as possible—quite the opposite. “As long as Europe sticks to this flawed system, it will continue to fall behind in the race for space,” warned Dr. Heinrich Kreft, who advocates for “much more market economy in space travel!”
The former German ambassador reflected on history: “In 1984, US President Ronald Reagan set the course for market-driven space travel in the United States with the Commercial Space Launch Act. Then, in 2015, President Barack Obama furthered the commercialization of space with the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, laying the foundation for a trillion-dollar market. Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are seizing this historic opportunity, with SpaceX and Blue Origin securing their places at the forefront of the space race.”
Series Production Instead of One-Off Manufacturing Significantly Cuts Costs
Co-author Andreas Dripke explained the shift from “competition instead of cost-plus”: “SpaceX also receives government contracts, but at a fixed price, which motivates the company to minimize costs. Thanks to the space industry’s shift to market-driven principles, the cost of a rocket launch in 2025 will be roughly one-fifth of what it was 15 years ago.” He predicts even more significant cost reductions as competition grows among the new generation of space companies. Dripke added, “This is similar to the shift from single-unit production to series production, and eventually mass production. For instance, SpaceX builds six to eight first stages, 120 to 140 second stages, and around 230 engines annually for the Falcon 9 rocket. In contrast, during its peak, the European ArianeGroup produced just seven rocket engines per year.”
The situation in Europe is further complicated by the so-called georeturn model, which mandates that each European country receive a share of contracts for new rockets based on its financial contribution. As a result, more than 600 companies from 13 countries had to be coordinated for the development of the Ariane 6. “This makes no sense, either technically or economically,” emphasized Dr. Heinrich Kreft. He believes that “only if European space travel can free itself from political constraints and embrace market-driven forces will Europe have a chance in the space race.” According to the authors’ calculations, just under 20 companies in Europe are involved in rocket development or construction. When factoring in satellite manufacturers and other space companies, the total rises to nearly 500, with around 80 percent being start-ups. “This is where the future of European space travel lies,” Dr. Kreft said, highlighting German companies like Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg, and HyImpulse as examples of those leading the charge in the space race.
“The new EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has the power to give European space travel a new boost by setting the course for a market-driven approach,” said Dr. Heinrich Kreft, addressing the EU Commissioner for Defence and Space, who took office at the end of last year. The former German ambassador firmly rejects the proposed European Space Law: “Regulating the legal framework for the EU’s space activities will not move Europe forward in international competition,” he warned, cautioning against taking the wrong approach. “We need more market and less regulation, not the other way around,” Dr. Kreft is convinced.
Satellites as Important as Rockets
The space race is not only about rockets but also about satellites. In the book, the authors emphasize the connection: reusable rockets with high payload capacities significantly reduce the cost of satellite launches. The fact that three-quarters of the approximately 10,000 satellites currently orbiting Earth belong to SpaceX’s Starlink network is largely a result of the company’s technological lead in rocket development.
“It will be difficult for Europe to catch up with Starlink’s lead,” analyzed Dr. Heinrich Kreft. Although the EU approved a comparable satellite network, IRIS2, in December 2024, it will only consist of 290 satellites, cover the European continent, and is not expected to be operational until at least 2030. According to the authors, IRIS2 is not suited for the latest trend—satellite communication with standard smartphones. “With IRIS2, Europe is at least one generation behind the US in satellite communication,” concluded Andreas Dripke.
The two authors believe that the emerging Kuiper satellite network from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ space company, Blue Origin, has a better chance of catching up with Starlink. Since 2024, the company has been producing up to 80 satellites per month at its own manufacturing facility, with the commercial launch planned for the end of 2025. Kuiper will primarily serve as a satellite backbone for broadband data connections for Amazon Web Services (AWS). Andreas Dripke summarized: “AWS is already the global market leader in cloud computing, with a market share of 30 to 40 percent. With Kuiper, Amazon clearly aims to further expand this market position. The race for fast internet connections from space will likely come down to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper and Elon Musk’s Starlink in the future.”
Dr. Heinrich Kreft explained: “Global satellite networks go far beyond economic interests; they involve fundamental geostrategic security considerations. This includes everything from drone control in conflict zones like Ukraine to providing non-terrestrial communication infrastructure during natural disasters on Earth.” He recalled the words of former US President John F. Kennedy in 1960, “Whoever controls space controls the Earth,” noting that they are “more true today than ever before.” (Dr. Heinrich Kreft). “With Starlink and, in the future, Kuiper, every future US administration, well beyond Trump’s term, will hold a bargaining chip whose strategic importance cannot be overstated,” added Andreas Dripke.
The book highlights the establishment of the US Space Force as evidence of the “absolute claim to power over space by the US.” The members of the Space Force, known as Guardians, are tasked with monitoring the area between Earth and the Moon, referred to as cislunar space, without interruption. This is roughly equivalent to expanding the surveillance range of geostationary satellites by a factor of about a thousand. As early as 2021, the Western military alliance NATO made it clear that any attack in space, such as an assault on a country’s satellites, would trigger the alliance clause – meaning it would be regarded as an attack on all member states.
In their book, Dr. Heinrich Kreft and Andreas Dripke provide a detailed analysis of how China is the only country that challenges the US on a large scale in space. In 2024, China launched two projects comparable to Starlink, with 13,000 (Guowang) and 14,000 (Spacesail) satellites, respectively. “China’s space dream, as articulated by President Xi Jinping, mirrors the USA’s claim to power in space,” said Dr. Heinrich Kreft. He added, “In terms of implementation, China may be behind the USA, but it is well ahead of Europe.”
Market Opportunities for Europe
According to the book, there are several market niches where European space travel could establish a foothold. For instance, the ESA plans to develop space debris collection as a “new commercial sector” of the space industry. Currently, around one million pieces of debris measuring at least one centimetre and around 5,000 objects measuring at least one metre are orbiting the Earth. In addition to debris collection, launching small rockets to transport micro-satellites is seen as a promising niche for European space companies. There are even plans for a spaceport in the North Sea to support this small-scale industry. “However, compared to the ambitious US plans, these European niches appear quite modest,” said Dr. Heinrich Kreft.
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