International rating agency Standard&Poor’s declared that development of the political situation in Georgia (B+/Positive/B) would not affect the sovereign ratings and prognosis in the short-term perspective. It is reported in the press release of Standard&Poor’s.
Trevor Cullinan, Standard&Poor’s analyst, noted that the improved consolidation of the previously weak oppositional forces after arrest of Irakli Okruashvili, former Defence Minister, was already taken into consideration under ratings. He says that force applied by the authorities of Georgia against the opposition on 7 November at the meeting with calls at resignation of President Saakashvili witnesses tenseness in the country. He added that the tense situation made the authorities face necessity of solution of internal problems in the environment of significant geopolitical risks.
Besides, the opposition calls at appointment of pre-term parliamentary elections in April 2008 instead of the end of the next year as it was planned before. Meanwhile, Mr. Saakashvili declared recently that the presidential elections would be held even earlier – in January 2008. He said that referendum would be held simultaneously on the topic of possible shift of the date of parliamentary elections. The President of Georgia promised that the state of emergency in force since 7 November 2007 would be cancelled soon.
Both the attack upon the TV Company in opposition and implementation of the state of emergency witness aggravation that puts under danger the dominating role of President Saakashvili at the political scene. The consolidation that the oppositional forces demonstrate now can appear an important step towards escalation of political competition and enforcement of the legislative power in Georgia.
Implementation of the state of emergency is followed with concern about possible force to be applied by the Government against opposition. If it happens, Positive prognosis under ratings of Georgia will be likely to be under oppression.
However, Standard&Poor’s expects peaceful resolution of the crisis. They hope that the current situation will not undermine adherence of the Government of Georgia to the market-oriented structural reforms, prospects of economic growth and inflow of the direct foreign investments.
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