As Russian Forces continue to attack around Avdiivka, they do so at an enormous cost, sustaining upwards of one thousand casualties a day. In this ill-judged act of strategic folly, Russia has invited this huge loss of life upon itself and with it, a diminishment in the eyes of a large part of the international community. Conservative estimates now assess Russia’s casualty figures at over 300,000 killed and wounded. The terrible tragedy of this illegal invasion is a damning indictment of Russia’s poorly-trained, poorly-equipped and poorly-led military. But the real tragedy is that the Ukrainian people have had to endure untold misery and heartache in a conflict imposed upon them.
In Russia, the devastation of the Russian military is being increasingly felt by the civil population. Recently, the Russian Field polling agency reported that the proportion of those who want the government to enter peace talks with Ukraine exceeds the proportion of those who want the war to continue. This is consistent with a number of polls in Russia which have shown the same sentiment over the last year. In spite of the repressive conditions in Russia against public protest, Russian soldiers’ wives recently gathered in Moscow’s Teatralnya Square demanding a rotation of their partners away from the frontline. The protest was broken up within minutes by police. On 27 November, one prominent online group for soldiers’ wives published a manifesto against ‘indefinite mobilisation’; the group was subsequently pinned with a ‘fake’ warning label. Kremlin efforts are now underway to either pay them off or discredit them.
Ukraine has achieved significant military successes in the Black Sea by denying Russia control of the western Black sea, pushed back elements of the Russian Navy over 300 km from Sevastopol and destroyed 13-14% of Russia’s Black Sea combatant fleet. This has enabled Ukraine to establish a maritime corridor for its exports, used by increasing flows of shipping, which will boost its economy and global food security. Russia has failed in its attempts to prevent Ukraine exporting its goods.
But, faced with all this, Russia has only escalated its attacks on the Ukrainian people – with terrible effects for civilian areas and critical national infrastructure across the country. Russia has launched waves of Iranian-designed one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles as part of a concerted winter campaign of strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Russia has comprehensively ruined the town of Marinka with a pre-war population of 9,000 inhabitants, and all the while this conflict has triggered serious safety concerns at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which, last week, was disconnected from the national electricity grid for the eighth time.
Madam Chair, Russia’s assault on Ukraine was an unprovoked, premeditated and barbaric attack against a sovereign democratic State. Week after week, the Russian delegation expounds narratives that sow disinformation about the culpability of ‘the West’ for Russia’s illegal invasion. But the truth is that no one forced Russia to attack another sovereign State; Russia did this of its own volition. This Forum went to every effort to prevent Russia’s invasion, but on the eve of war Russia categorically denied to this Forum that Russia would invade Ukraine. On 23 February 2022, the Russian delegation are on record as stating, “The idea of there being plans for a “Russian invasion” of Ukraine was hatched inside the US Department of State, and that is where it also died on 16 February. We can see that US intelligence got its facts mixed up”. In this context, it is fitting that the side event on ‘Information Integrity in the Military Space’ was held two weeks ago in spite of Russia’s obstruction.
During the Russian delegation’s ‘Right-of-Reply’ when this Forum last convened, it accused ‘the West’ of “tearing Ukraine away from Russia”. Russia has also used similar language recently concerning other members of this Forum. This is indicative of Russia’s continued contempt for international law. Ukraine is a sovereign independent State, recognised in international law by Russia as such on 2 December 1991, so there is nothing to ‘tear away’. The Ukrainian people have the right to self-determination and the Russian government’s reprehensible actions are an egregious violation of international law and the UN Charter.
Madam Chair, in the face of Russia’s illegal actions, the United Kingdom will continue to stand in support of Ukraine. The UK’s total military, humanitarian and economic package for Ukraine now amounts to £9.3 billion. As stated by the Foreign Secretary during his recent visit to Kyiv, we will continue our support, “not just this year and next year but for as long as it takes”. Already, we see what the brave men and women of Ukraine’s Armed Forces are capable of, pushing Russian troops away from the Dnipro River area. The Russian Ministry of Defence has referred to this as “relocating to more favourable positions”. Russia should recognise its grave strategic error and move to the most favourable position of all: out of Ukraine’s internationally-recognised sovereign territory.
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