The FINANCIAL — Based on current gains in Kursk and ongoing offensives, Russia may resume attacks post-ceasefire, negotiate with hardline terms, and use propaganda to shape narratives. It’ll likely test U.S. and allied resolve, possibly escalating if support wanes. Putin’s three-day ceasefire from May 8–10, 2025, aligns with Russia’s Victory Day, likely aiming to boost domestic support and project a peaceful image internationally. It seems he’s using it for propaganda, stalling tactics, and possibly repositioning forces, as Ukraine and allies see it as insincere, calling for a longer truce instead.
Russia has rejected U.S.-Ukraine ceasefire proposals, like a 30-day truce, due to demands for Ukraine to abandon NATO and cede territories, which Ukraine won’t accept. Putin also distrusts Ukraine might rearm during a pause, preferring to maintain battlefield pressure.
Historically, Russia announced ceasefires, like the Easter 2025 truce, but both sides accused violations, suggesting Russia uses them to regroup or gain tactical advantages, not for peace. It’s continued military operations despite talks, showing a pattern of manipulation.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fourth year, has reached a pivotal moment with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a unilateral three-day ceasefire from May 8 to May 10, 2025, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. This move, met with skepticism by Ukraine and its Western allies, underscores Russia’s strategic manipulation of ceasefires. This survey note analyzes why Putin is manipulating the May 9 ceasefire, examines Russia’s refusal of ceasefire offers from the U.S. and Ukraine, reviews Russia’s past responses and actions, and predicts its next moves based on the current situation in Ukraine, drawing on recent media reports and official statements as of April 29, 2025.
Why Putin is Manipulating the 3-Day Ceasefire for May 9
Putin’s decision to declare a three-day ceasefire, announced on April 28, 2025, is strategically timed to align with Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9, a significant national holiday commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany. Several factors suggest this is a manipulative tactic rather than a genuine peace effort:
The announcement follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of Russia’s attacks on Kyiv, with Trump expressing frustration that Putin is “just tapping me along,” as per The New York Times. By offering a short truce, Putin signals goodwill to Trump without committing to the 30-day ceasefire proposed by the U.S. and accepted by Ukraine in March 2025 talks in Saudi Arabia, per PBS.
Ukraine has called for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha questioning, “Why wait until May 8th?” in an X post, emphasizing readiness for a “lasting, durable, and full ceasefire.” Putin’s limited truce rejects this, framing Ukraine as uncooperative and shifting blame, as noted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who called it a “new attempt at manipulation” for “Putin’s parade,” per The Guardian.
Tactical Battlefield Advantage: The ceasefire may allow Russia to reposition forces or resupply, preparing for renewed offensives post-May 10. Historical patterns, such as the violated Easter truce, suggest Russia uses such pauses for strategic gain, as per Reuters. The Kremlin’s warning of an “adequate and effective response” to Ukrainian violations, per BBC, indicates readiness to exploit any perceived breach.
Geopolitical Posturing: By tying the ceasefire to a Russian holiday, Putin reinforces narratives of historical grievance and moral superiority, testing the resolve of Ukraine and its allies. This aligns with Russia’s broader strategy to counter Western narratives, as seen in its rejection of U.S.-led peace efforts, per Al Jazeera.
In summary, Putin’s manipulation serves propaganda, stalling, and tactical purposes, prioritizing Russia’s image over peace.
Russia’s Refusal of Ceasefire Offers from the U.S. and Ukraine
Since early 2025, the U.S. has pushed for a 30-day ceasefire, with Ukraine agreeing in March 2025 talks, proposing prisoner exchanges and civilian releases but omitting sanctions relief. Russia has consistently rejected these offers, imposing conditions that Ukraine and the West deem unacceptable:
Maximalist Demands: Putin has conditioned ceasefires on addressing “root causes,” including Ukraine renouncing NATO, ceding Crimea and four annexed regions, demilitarizing, and holding elections to replace Zelenskyy, as outlined by Reuters. These demands, reiterated by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, are non-starters, per Al Jazeera.
Distrust and Security Concerns: Putin has expressed fears that Ukraine might use a ceasefire to regroup and rearm, questioning enforcement mechanisms, as seen in a March 13, 2025, press conference, per NPR. This distrust stems from Ukraine’s military gains, like in Kursk, per The Guardian.
Battlefield Confidence: With territorial gains, including reclaiming 1,100 sq km in Kursk by March 2025, per Reuters, Russia sees little incentive to pause, preferring to maintain pressure, as Putin’s March visit in fatigues symbolized, per The New York Times.
Diplomatic Stalemate: By rejecting offers, Russia prolongs the conflict, hoping to wear down Ukraine and its allies, testing Western resolve, especially under Trump, who has threatened new sanctions, per Wikipedia.
Russia’s refusal reflects a strategy to secure strategic objectives, exploiting military and diplomatic stalemates.
Russia’s Past Responses and Actions
Russia’s history in the conflict shows a pattern of using ceasefires for tactical gain:
Previous Ceasefires: Russia announced a 30-hour Easter truce in April 2025, but both sides reported violations, with Ukraine accusing Russia of hundreds of attacks, per CBS News. This mirrors earlier failed ceasefires, like those from 2014–2020, noted in an X post by @vtchakarova
, suggesting Russia uses truces for repositioning.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: While engaging in talks, Russia pursued military gains, such as capturing territory during U.S.-led negotiations, per Al Jazeera. Putin’s meetings with Belarusian President Lukashenko and hosting leaders for Victory Day, per CNBC, project strength while setting impossible conditions.
President Zelensky: “We in Ukraine never wanted a single second of this war. Back on March 11, we responded positively to the American proposal for a full ceasefire. We made our own proposal to Russia – bilaterally – to halt strikes at least on civilian targets. We also proposed making the Easter ceasefire full and extending it for thirty days.
Russia has consistently rejected everything and continues to manipulate the world, trying to deceive the United States. Now, yet again, another attempt at manipulation: for some reason everyone is supposed to wait until May 8 before ceasing fire — just to provide Putin with silence for his parade.
We value human lives, not parades. That’s why we believe — and the world believes — that there is no reason to wait until May 8. The ceasefire should not be just for a few days, only to return to killing afterward. It must be immediate, full, and unconditional — for at least 30 days to ensure it is secure and guaranteed. This is the foundation that could lead to real diplomacy.
We reaffirm this proposal. The American proposal also remains on the table. Russia knows exactly what it needs to do and how to respond: to genuinely cease fire.”
Military Escalation: Despite ceasefires, Russia has continued drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, targeting civilians, drawing condemnation, per BBC. Recent reports of drone attacks killing a 12-year-old girl, per Reuters, show ongoing aggression.
Information Warfare: Russia uses propaganda to portray Ukraine as the aggressor, blaming it for ceasefire failures, per The Atlantic Council. This strategy aims to erode international support, as seen in state media narratives.
Russia’s past actions indicate a consistent strategy of using ceasefires for tactical and propaganda purposes, not peace.
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