The FINANCIAL — According to EU business, Serbia has come to a crossroad ahead of early elections following a rift between pro-Western President Boris Tadic and nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica on breakaway Kosovo and EU integration, analysts said on March 9.
The call for early polls came after Kostunica said on March 8 that his cabinet had "no united policy any more on an important issue related to the future of the country — Kosovo as a part of Serbia."
"All parties want Serbia to join the EU, but the question is how — with or without Kosovo," Kostunica said.
Kostunica's outgoing cabinet would meet on March 10 to formally dissolve parliament and urge Tadic to call new elections for May 11, the same date as existing municipal polls.
But Tadic, who backed the possibility of early polls, has rejected tying Serbia's EU path with Kosovo, whose ethnic Albanian leadership proclaimed independence from Serbia on February 17.
Analyst Dejan Vuk Stankovic said it has become obvious the differences between the two camps "became so huge that they were not able to function together anymore."
"The polls will make clear what policy has a priority in regard to European integration and the state's position on Kosovo," said Stankovic.
Marko Blagojevic of nongovernmental CESID poll monitors said the elections "will most probably be turned into a referendum on Serbia's future."
"The main topics have become dominant: European Union: yes or no, with Kosovo, yes or no," said analyst Dusan Pavlovic.
Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) split from a coalition with Tadic's party and the liberal G17-Plus after Kosovo declared independence on February 17, plunging the Balkan state into crisis.
The DSS, backed by the ultra-nationalist opposition Serbian Radical Party vowed to halt Serbia's integration, demanding the EU to revoke its support for Kosovo's independence before resuming any further talks over Belgrade's possible membership to the bloc.
The latest moves in Serbia have angered the Serbs in Kosovo, who refuse to recognize Kosovo's independence and count on Belgrade's support.
"This move just shows the irresponsibility of the political elite in Belgrade," warned Kosovo Serb nationalist leader Milan Ivanovic.
"Instead of joining ranks toward solving the most important issue — preserving Kosovo within Serbia — they seem to call for anarchy," Ivanovic said.
But analysts insisted that such a rigid stance was not helpful for Serbia's future.
"There will be no economically stable Serbia without strong relations with the European Union," said economic analyst Jurij Bajec.
"And only a stable and strong Serbia can defend its sovereignty in Kosovo, by legal, diplomatic and political means," Bajec told Beta news agency.
Economist Danica Popovic warned that Serbia, with its still fragile transitional economy, still needs to depend strongly on foreign investments and international assistance.
"There is no serious investor in the world who would come to the country with no clear political outlook," warned Popovic.
And for citizens of Serbia, where an average salary has yet to reach 400 euros (500 dollars per month), a "political turmoil brings no solution for their life standard."
"The time has come for the citizens to say what they want," Popovic said.
But analayst Vladimir Babic insisted the European Union "should clearly define its support for pro-Western forces."
"Not only the citizens of Serbia have to chose what they want, Europe also has to make a choice and, at least in words, give a hint of understanding for a national drama over Kosovo," Babic said.
Serbia has initialled but not signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) — a first step for Balkan states wishing to join the bloc.
Even if Serbian leaders agree to take the country down the EU road, further problems lie ahead.
The Netherlands has blocked attempts to sign the SAA because of Serbia's failure to hand over UN war crimes suspects, like former Bosnian Serb military chief Ratko Mladic who has been indicted for genocide.
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