The FINANCIAL — The demographic tendencies of Georgia will start dramatic degradation by 2015-2020 according to the prognosis of Giorgi Tsuladze, Scientist and Sociologist of Ilia State University.
Though nowadays the demographic standpoint is stable and the natality ratio has surpassed 2 children per family, still the positive tendencies can last only 3-4 years. It’s expected that the population of Georgia will decrease to 3,500,000.
“With all our demographic tendencies and development we should be heading for the abyss. But somehow, with the help of God, we have positive figures,” Tsuladze said to The FINANCIAL. “Some people think that the improvement of social and living conditions has improved the natality ratio. Some consider that the appeal of the Catholicos Patriarch of Georgia, for families to have more children in return for him becoming the godfather of every third child born in every family, encouraged the population. But if you ask me as a professional, the positive standpoint can’t last much longer than three years.”
In 1990 the number of live births was over 92,000. By 2002-2003 there were the worst figures of the last twenty years when the number decreased to about 40,000. According to the latest data of the National Statistics Office of Georgia, by 2009 the figure had increased to 63,000. But as Tsuladze says, in the last year the number of live births again fell down, to 61,000.
“According to our country’s physiological capacity we can boost our live birth ratio to 300,000. This is our maximum, if each family dared to have over ten children. However we live in an absolutely different era. Nowadays given the social-economic situation the average maximum is 3 children,” added Tsuladze.
“The appeal of the Catholicos Patriarch increased the live birth ratio by providing an incentive to families who wanted to have 3 or more children,” said Avtandil Sulaberidze, Director of the Institute of Demography and Sociology. “This statement boosted the nation’s families’ desires to have a third child. However before a married couple has its third child they have to have had a first and second baby. After the first child they encounter so many problems that many young couples hardly dare think about a second one. It was part of the demographic policy, like in France when de Gaulle appealed to its population. The statistics of live birth increased, but they have to be maintained and supported by social-economic events. Otherwise it won’t last for a long time. We will move towards a decrease again.”
Another factor for the expected decrease of live births could be the divorce and second marriage ratio. It is interesting that in recent times the number has increased, mostly of females who divorce officially after five years of living together and then register a second marriage. The maximum number of official divorces hiked to 8,000 by 1990. It was estimated that almost 65-75% of families divorced for reasons of childlessness.
“It’s intriguing that since 1990 the number of divorces before 5 years of marriage has been decreasing, but the number of divorces after 20 years of marriage is increasing,” continued Sulaberidze. “In comparison to 2005, when 23% – the greatest share – was made up by divorces after 20 years; it shrunk to 20% by 2010. However it’s still the highest level among all divorce data.”
Paata Makharashvili, a Gynaecologist of Gagua Maternity Home, agrees that the last two years are distinguished by the 20-30% increasing live birth ratio.
“I say that females are prevailing and we are happy that most of the babies are being born absolutely healthy. Most primary pathologies we have been facing in recent times have been neurological such as spinal pathologies etc,” noted Makharashvili. “Over 90% of babies with this fatal disease can’t survive. The reason for the pathologies could be ecologically unhealthy food, low quality medicines, radioactive substances and so many other things that pregnant women can be exposed to in everyday life.
It must be mentioned that the number of abortions has significantly decreased because of an increasing level of development and education. The population has become more aware of sexual matters.”
As the National Statistics Office of Georgia registers, we have today in Georgia a population of 4,400,000. UNO registers only 4,200,000. The Institute of Demography and Sociology doesn’t agree with the statistics of the Geostat and says that Georgia has a population of around 3,800,000 in the country these days.
In comparison to the current decreasing Georgian population the 20th century was an era of unprecedented population growth. Foreign Affairs published the report The Demographic Future of Nicholas Eberstadt, in which he wrote about the reasons for population growth.
“Between 1900 and 2000, the world’s population almost quadrupled, from about 1.6 billion people to around 6.1 billion. This huge expansion did not occur because people suddenly began reproducing at higher rates; instead, population surged because humans finally stopped dying like flies. Over the course of the twentieth century, global life expectancy at birth more than doubled, soaring from about 30 years in 1900 to about 65 years in 2000. This global population explosion was, in reality, a health explosion: the entirety of the enormous increase in human population over the past several generations was due to dramatic declines in mortality and improvements in general health conditions,” reported Eberstadt.
In spite of the unpleasant prognosis Tsuladze expects hopeful movements in the increase of Georgia’s population by 2030. As he says the improvement of the standpoint is expected at the expense of migration, which will last till 2050.
“UNO has a different forecast. Nowadays our external migration is still negative with our methodology. According to the UNO prognosis, it will be stable negative within 20 years. But I don’t agree with these statistics,” stated Tsuladze. “I mean, our country has already passed the most negative tendencies since 2000, including the hardest years of 1991-1992. During that time many people left the country to survive. I think that with the improvement of the economical and social situation the people who left the country in that hard period will return. With all my calculations, by 2030 our migration quota will become positive enough and will start a significant increase of the population.”
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