THe FINANCIAL — The ongoing war in Ukraine has cast a harsh light on the role of nuclear deterrence in guaranteeing security. Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s following assurances from the West, particularly the United States. These assurances, enshrined in the Budapest Memorandum, were seen as security guarantees against potential aggression. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises questions about the effectiveness of such promises.
The Budapest Memorandum: A Promise of Security?
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a significant nuclear arsenal. The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994, aimed to convince Ukraine to relinquish these weapons. In return, the signatories, including the US, UK, and Russia, offered “security assurances” against threats or use of force against Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
However, the memorandum was not a formal treaty and lacked a clear enforcement mechanism. This ambiguity has fueled the debate about whether the US truly promised military defense to Ukraine.
Arguments Against a US Failure:
Some argue the US did not explicitly guarantee military intervention. The Budapest Memorandum focused on assurances against the threat or use of force, not a full-fledged military defense pact. Additionally, the US provided significant non-military support to Ukraine, including military training and equipment.
Arguments for a US Failure:
Others see the US as having fallen short. The lack of a clear deterrent against Russian aggression is viewed as a major failing. Proponents of this view argue that even a strong possibility of US military involvement could have deterred Russia. They point to the success of the US nuclear umbrella in preventing Soviet aggression in Europe during the Cold War as evidence of deterrence’s effectiveness [This claim is debated by some historians, who argue Soviet aggression was not seriously considered due to other factors].
The Fallout and the Future of Deterrence
The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly shaken the concept of nuclear deterrence as a guaranteed security measure. The effectiveness of such assurances hinges on both clear communication and a credible threat of force. The ambiguity surrounding the Budapest Memorandum has left Ukraine vulnerable.
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine called the action a blatant violation of the security assurances in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. However, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, “the security assurances were given to the legitimate government of Ukraine but not to the forces that came to power following the coup d’etat.”
The future of nuclear deterrence remains uncertain. This situation may prompt countries to re-evaluate their reliance on such assurances and potentially seek stronger security guarantees, particularly in regions facing potential aggression.
On the day the agreement was signed, the highly experienced French leader Francois Mitterrand told Kuchma, “Young man, you will be tricked, one way or the other.”
Timeline
July 16, 1990: Ukraine’s Declaration of Sovereignty
July 31, 1991: The United States and the Soviet Union sign START
Dec. 26, 1991: The Soviet Union officially dissolves, delaying entry into force of START
Dec. 30, 1991: Minsk Agreement on Strategic Forces
The Commonwealth of Independent States agrees that strategic forces would be under the joint command of the former Soviet Union states
May 23, 1992: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the United States sign the Lisbon Protocol
The protocol calls for the return of nuclear weapons in three formerly Soviet states to Russia and for all states to be added to the START treaty and join the NPT
Jan. 14, 1994: Ukraine, Russia, and the United States sign the Trilateral Statement
Ukraine commits to full disarmament, including strategic offensive weapons, in exchange for economic support and security assurances from the United States and Russia
Sept. 4, 1993: Massandra Accords
Failed summit between Russian and Ukrainian governments
Dec. 5, 1994: Russia, Ukraine, United States, and the United Kingdom sign the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
Includes security assurances against the threat or use of force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence
Dec. 5, 1994: Ukraine submits its instrument of accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state
The five START parties exchange instruments of ratification for START, which enters into force
June 1, 1996: Ukraine transfers its last nuclear warhead to Russia
October 30, 2001: Ukraine eliminates its last strategic nuclear weapon delivery vehicle
Dec. 4, 2009: Joint Statement by Russia and the United States
The two countries confirm the security guarantees made in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
March 18, 2014: Russia annexes Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and provides supports an ongoing insurrection by separatist forces in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk provinces of Ukraine.
Late 2021 to early 2022: Russia engages in “military exercises” with a force estimated to exceed 150,000 military personnel involving land-, sea-, and air-based weaponry on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine raising fears of an invasion by Russia.
February 24, 2022: Russia began a large-scale military attack and invasion of Ukraine, with planes and missile launcher attacks on Ukrainian cities, airports, and military infrastructure across much of the country.
The Budapest Memorandum of 1994
The following is the text of the Memorandum on Security Assurances, known as the Budapest Memorandum, in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signed Dec. 5, 1994.
The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a nonnuclear-weapon State, Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time, Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.
Confirm the following:
1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.
5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.
6.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments. This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature. Signed in four copies having equal validity in the English, Russian and Ukrainian languages.
Discussion about this post