The new #1 is Germany, which returned to the top spot it had held in 2021 and 20 times since the start of the century. Already by end of August 2023, the country had installed 9 GW, that’s as much capacity as targeted by the government for the entire year. By the end of October 2023, the country had grid-connected 11.7 GW, adding more than 1 GW installed per month since March. According to our medium scenario, Germany will reach over 14 GW by the end of 2023. This marks the first time a European country’s annual installations have exceeded the 10 GW mark, breaking the 12-year record held by Italy, which grid-connected 9.3 GW back in 2011. The revision of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in July 2022 took full effect at the beginning of 2023 and has been supporting the implementation of Germany’s huge pipeline stemming mostly from the 2022 crises. Improvements include a raise in feed-in tariffs for new rooftop systems and a halt in monthly reductions of feed-in rates for new systems until the end of 2024, among many others. Also, no VAT has to be paid for solar systems as of January 2023.
Spain comes second with 8.2 GW newly installed capacity in 2023. After the spectacular 76% year-on-year growth to 8.4 GW in 2022, which catapulted it to 1st place, the southern European country is expected to have faced a slight market decrease of 3% in 2023, the only decrease among the top 10 EU markets. The residential segment, which peaked in 2022 at close to 3 GW during the peak of the energy crisis, declined by around 15% in 2023. Additionally, long delays in subsidy payments have damaged the public perception within Spain’s very young solar rooftop segment. While quickly decreasing module prices backed demand in the nascent commercial and industrial (C&I) segment in the second half of 2023, ground-mounted PV parks have remained the workhorse of the Spanish solar sector, mostly realised in form of Power Purchase Agreements, underlining the country’s position as a global market leader in the field of subsidy-free solar. However, grid-connection constraints for the huge utility-scale pipeline combined with today’s high interest rates and falling wholesale prices have limited utilisation of this gigantic potential in 2023 as well.
One of the largest growing EU solar markets this year was Italy which installed 4.9 GW in 2023. This is nearly double the 2.5 GW installed in 2022, when one of Europe’s solar pioneers first re-entered the GW scale, a milestone that wasn’t achieved since 2013. Within the EU, only the Austrian market has a slightly higher growth rate this year. Italy jumped two positions compared to 2022 and enters the top 10 for the first time in a decade. In previous years, the residential segment had played a crucial role in driving the Italian solar market, primarily due to its generous Superbonus incentive scheme. But the subsidy programme, which offered homeowners a tax credit of up to 110% for installing solar PV among others, was strongly amended in 2023. While residential installations decreased from the monthly peak of 200 MW in March to 153 MW in October, this segment contributes still a significant share of around 40%. The major base for Italy’s solar growth is provided by the C&I sector, which is responsible for about 43% of the installed capacity in 2023.
Poland’s solar market basically kept its size at 4.6 GW in 2023. But the only 1% increase from 4.5 GW in 2022 was not enough to secure its third rank; in 2023, it dropped a place to fourth. Historically, the residential sector was the key driver for Poland’s emergence of the European solar map; the introduction of a net-metering scheme in 2016 catapulted the country into the group of Europe’s top solar markets. When this scheme transitioned from net metering to a less attractive net-billing programme in April 2022, it had no substantial impact on overall solar deployment in that year, as a final run on subsidies partly compensated for those months post net metering. The lower demand for residential solar became only fully visible in 2023, when the attractiveness to invest in solar had worsened for consumers not only through less attractive incentives, but it also coincided with falling electricity prices after the end of the energy crisis. Consequently, the share of new residential solar installations decreased from 71% in 2021 to 60% in 2022 and to around 30% in 2023, whereas the larger PV systems segment – both on rooftops and ground-mounted – seems to be growing faster.
The Netherlands dropped one place to rank 5 in 2023, after it installed 4.5 GW of new capacities, a 10% increase compared to 2022. Its solar market is largely based on a consistent net-metering policy for the residential sector and an auction programme for larger rooftop and ground-mounted systems. The residential rooftop market slightly contracted to 41% or 1.8 GW of the 2023 total, after the energy crisis had pushed this segment to record levels the year before. While both C&I and ground-mounted solar both gained shares, these systems are both facing grid congestion issues, while large parks also have to deal with severe space constraints, which the industry explores to overcome through multifunctional PV applications like Agri-PV, floating solar, and solar carports.
France remained at the 6th position, even though it recorded a 25% growth. But the new addition of 3.0 GW, up from 2.4 GW in 2022, was still significantly too low to enter the top 5. Self-consumption at the residential level has notably expanded, largely in response to the energy price crisis. The larger rooftop segments also continue to benefit from a policy framework revision in autumn 2021, which raised the rooftop tender threshold from 100 to 500 kW and broadened eligibility for feed-in tariffs. The primary driver of solar PV growth in the country remains its regular solar technology-specific tenders. But legislative challenges and difficulties accessing lands have led many developers to delay projects, constraining France’s ability to unleash its full solar potential.
A 114% market increase resulted in 2.2 GW new solar capacity, giving Austria the 7th position among EU solar markets. Thanks to that outstanding performance – the highest growth rate across the top 10 markets – Austria improved by 3 places in the ranking, only one year after entering this group and breaking the GW-scale for the first time. The majority of new installations are attributed to residential and commercial rooftop systems, backed by subsidies available to various size categories. Additionally, large-scale projects are on the rise, particularly in the form of ground-mounted PV and Agri-PV, as four states have now identified designated areas for this segment.
Belgium’s PV market experienced a thriving year, recording 1.7 GW newly installed capacity and 72% growth over the 2022 additions of 985 MW. This highest annual installation capacity recorded so far moved Belgium up 3 ranks to 8th place in the 2023 rankings. It also marks the third instance Belgium surpassed the 1 GW milestone after 2011 and 2020, albeit by a lower margin. Over three-quarters of the country’s new grid-connected PV installations were realised in Flanders, mostly in the residential and commercial rooftop segments. The end of net metering in January 2023 in Wallonia led to a surge in residential installations during the last quarter of 2023. Similarly, Flanders will transition away from net metering to a nearly subsidy-free market starting from 2024.
At 9th place, Greece confirms its presence amongst the key EU solar PV markets. After it crossed the GW threshold in 2022 for the first time with 1.4 GW installed, the Greek solar market grew by 20% to more than 1.6 GW in 2023. This increase was primarily propelled by small ground-mounted PV projects up to 500 kW. Simultaneously, both the utility-scale and residential segments saw growth – the former supported by an auction scheme and simplified authorisation procedures.
Securing the final spot in the top 10, Hungary witnesses the most successful year in history for its solar sector. Annual additions reached 1.6 GW by the end of 2023, a 45% growth from the 1.1 GW recorded in 2022. The residential sector experienced a strong increase in demand as of the end of 2022, following announcements to prohibit prosumers feeding solar PV electricity into the grid from the beginning of 2023 due to reported distribution grid constraints. Consequently, the bulk of residential installations in 2023 resulted from the massive order volume placed in the previous year. This, in addition to the removal of the net-metering scheme, contributed to a gradual decline of new system installations throughout 2023. Next to the residential surge, several large-scale utility plants became operational in 2023, with a few more under construction. Yet, the grid infrastructure needs to be enhanced faster to allow for large-scale projects to be built in the future.
The EU top 10 solar markets account for 83% of total installations in 2023, a slight 3 percentage point decrease from their 86% share in 2022, and 89% in 2021, indicating a declining market concentration. This is not a new trend. The top 10 market concentration has been slowly declining over the past decade. Together, these countries installed 46.3 GW in 2023, compared to 34.4 GW in 2022. Concurrently, the top 5 solar markets lost shares as well, capturing 65% of the market compared to 67% in 2022 and 75% in 2021. This decrease in the shares of top market groups is good news as it indicates the emergence of solar power in many EU Member States and that the sector continues to diversify, which can also be seen in the GW-markets chapter, where a record number of countries reaching that level in 2023.
Looking beyond the leading solar markets at the overall picture of the EU-27, we indeed see increasing activity. Figure 7 illustrates a heatmap showcasing annual installations in each country, where darker shades indicate higher annual installations compared to the national historical average since 2000. The map underscores the substantial growth experienced by most European countries over the last three years. Around three quarters or 20 countries experienced their best year in 2023, compared to 17 countries in 2022. Moreover, 2023 stands out as the second-best year for solar deployment in five countries – the Czech Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Romania, and Spain. Denmark and Slovakia recorded their third-best year for annual solar PV installations in 2023. This implies that, for any EU Member State, 2023 ranks among the top three best years ever.
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