A new storm is brewing in the Atlantic, marking yet another burst of activity in an unusually late and volatile hurricane season. Tropical Storm Jerry, the 10th named storm of the year, formed Tuesday over the central Atlantic Ocean and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
As of Tuesday evening, Jerry was churning more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, packing sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and moving westward. Tropical storm watches were issued for Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Barthélemy, St. Martin, and Sint Maarten, signaling the possibility of winds between 39 and 73 miles per hour within 48 hours.
The NHC said Jerry is likely to approach or pass just north of the northern Leeward Islands later this week as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas to the region. The exact track remains uncertain, but the system is not expected to pose a threat to the U.S. mainland, with a cold front forecast to steer it northeastward into open water.
A Late Surge in a Shifting Hurricane Season
Jerry’s arrival continues a late-season surge in tropical activity across the Atlantic. After a relatively calm start to the year, the basin has seen three hurricanes form in just over two weeks — a reflection of how dramatically conditions can shift during the latter half of the season.
Forecasters attribute this uptick to a combination of warming ocean waters and waning wind shear, which had previously suppressed storm development earlier in the summer. Sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic remain about 1.5 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, providing ample fuel for storm intensification.
Eyes on the Caribbean
While Jerry is not expected to affect the continental United States, forecasters are keeping watch on the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean, where a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre could emerge later this month. The system — a sprawling zone of disturbed weather and low pressure — is notorious for spinning off late-season tropical storms and hurricanes.
Late-season storms often pose heightened risks to the U.S. Gulf Coast because they form closer to land. As October cold fronts become more frequent along the East Coast, tropical systems originating farther south sometimes find clearer paths toward the mainland.
Boom or Bust to Close the Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, and historically, about four named storms form during October and November. But recent years have underscored how unpredictable the end of the season can be.
Last year saw seven storms form after October 1, compared with just two in 2023. In some seasons, tropical activity shuts down early; in others, it lingers with destructive intensity.
The most powerful October storm on record remains Hurricane Michael (2018), which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 with winds of 160 mph — the latest such storm to strike the United States at that strength. Other infamous late-season systems include Hurricane Matthew (2016), which tore through the Caribbean and up the southeastern U.S. coast, and Hurricane Sandy (2012), which morphed into a hybrid superstorm that devastated New York and New Jersey.
More recently, Hurricane Helene last September brought catastrophic flooding across the Southeast, while Hurricane Milton stunned meteorologists with its explosive intensification to Category 5 strength before striking Florida in early October.
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