The FINANCIAL — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political party staged a stunning comeback November 1, winning over voters with its message that one-party rule was the only way to fight a two-front war with Islamic State extremists and Kurdish militants, according to Nasdaq.
Less than six months after losing the majority it had held for 13 years, Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, or AKP, regained sole control of Parliament as millions of voters who had been disillusioned with the party returned in force.
The victory gives the president new clout in seeking concessions from Western allies who have asked Mr. Erdogan to play a bigger role in fighting Islamic State militants and choking off the flow of Middle Eastern refugees pouring into Europe. The president will also have a clear mandate to press ahead with the military campaign against Kurdish separatists, and could keep hammering them to weaken their position in future peace talks.
With almost all the votes counted, the AKP appeared set to secure 316 seats in the 550-seat Parliament. Mr. Erdogan’s conservative-Islamist party marginalized rivals who had hoped to contain his ambitions to consolidate power: The main opposition secularist party barely registered a gain, and Turkish nationalist and pro-Kurdish parties lost significant ground.
While the AKP fell short of the 330 seats needed to enact the sweeping constitutional changes Mr. Erdogan had once sought, the powerful majority solidifies his power in Ankara as the country’s most powerful leader. Mr. Erdogan will be able to exercise de facto executive authority through a pliant party over key policy areas including foreign affairs, security and the economy.
As the extent of the AKP victory became clear, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu appeared before jubilant supporters in the central Anatolian city of Konya with a new appeal for unity.
“Today, supporters of terrorism have been buried in the ballot boxes,” Mr. Davutoglu said. But, he added, “We will never sacrifice freedoms for security.”
The remarkable turnaround for Mr. Erdogan and the AKP came amid a deteriorating security situation that had made terrorism a top concern for voters. In the weeks leading up to the vote, Turkish televisions were filled with grim images of deadly attacks carried out by suspected Islamic State bombers, military crackdowns on Kurdish cities, and funerals for Turkish security officers killed by Kurdish fighters.
The dangers culminated in a devastating Oct. 10 attack by two suspected Islamic State suicide bombers who killed more than 100 people at a peace rally in Turkey’s capital. The bombing, which some called “Turkey’s 9/11,” was the country’s deadliest terrorist attack, and it cemented fears that the increasingly polarized country was facing unchecked instability.
“The election results show that the politics of fear and division worked,” said David L. Phillips, a former State Department adviser who now serves as director of the Peace-Building and Rights Program at Columbia University. “Now an emboldened Erdogan is likely to have more bravado and be more antagonistic.”
The message resonated not only with nationalists who backed Mr. Erdogan’s decision to renew the country’s fight with the outlawed Kurdish force known as the PKK, but also with Kurdish residents rattled by renewed violence that had consumed their communities.
The AKP’s rise drained votes from the pro-Kurdish Democratic People’s Party, or HDP, which almost fell below the 10% threshold it surpassed in June, which had cleared the way for the party to enter Parliament for the first time.
As the results came in, subdued HDP leaders said they could take comfort in having retained their power bloc in Parliament, despite efforts to push them out.
“Since the June 7 elections, the AKP government and the [presidential] palace have been working on a single goal: to push the HDP below the electoral threshold,” said Figen Yuksekdag, co-chair of the HDP.
Despite the setback, Selahattin Demirtas, co-chair of the HDP, vowed to press for peace when the party enters Parliament as a minority voice.
“We will continue our principled stance for a new constitution, reforms for a civilian democracy, and for peace in a new session of Parliament,” Mr. Demirtas said.
But the direction of peace talks is now likely to be decided by Mr. Erdogan, and the PKK, who will have to decide which path brings them closer to their aims. Many in Turkey accused Mr. Erdogan of propelling the country into the new fight with the PKK to boost his stature as the only Turkish strongman who could confront a terrorist threat.
Mr. Erdogan has expressed growing concern about the regional spread of Kurdish militant power. In neighboring Syria, the U.S. military is deepening its work with Kurdish militants known as the YPG. Mr. Erdogan considers the two to be terrorist groups and his military has launched attacks on the group in Syria to check their territorial ambitions.
Now that Mr. Erdogan has regained power, he may decide to resume peace talks. The PKK and a new generation of Kurdish militants will also have to decide whether to keep pressing their fight with Turkey, or to sit down and talk.
“If Kurds don’t feel their rights can be achieved through the ballot box, they will turn to the PKK,” said Mr. Phillips. “This election is bad news for peace at home, and peace abroad.”
At the same time, Mr. Erdogan will have to decide what role to play in helping the U.S. and Europe deal with the growing threat from Islamic State militants.
Turkish jet fighters are carrying out airstrikes on Islamic State forces and Mr. Erdogan has agreed to do more to close off the porous border used by the militants to resupply and smuggle in fighters. But he is seeking more concessions from Europe before helping them stem the surge of refugees fleeing the Middle East war.
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