The FINANCIAL — Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -14 for the week ending Sept. 13, the same as the previous week. This is among the lowest scores so far this year, but is slightly improved from the -17 measured two weeks ago.
Although the latest reading is better than the large majority of index scores Gallup has tracked since 2008, it is lackluster compared with figures over the past year. After years in negative territory, the index turned positive at the end of 2014 and remained there for several weeks. By February, scores became negative again and have gradually worsened in the months since, with the recent -17 in late August being the worst score since September of last year.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is based on the combined responses to two questions — the first asking Americans to rate economic conditions in the U.S. today, and the second asking whether they think economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, if all Americans were to rate the economy as “excellent” or “good” and “getting better,” and a theoretical minimum of -100, if all Americans were to rate the economy as “poor” and “getting worse.”
The current conditions score of -7 is the result of 25% of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good and 32% saying it is poor, essentially the same as the prior five weeks. The economic outlook score of -20, which did not change from the previous week, is the result of 38% saying the economy is getting better and 58% saying it is getting worse.
Bottom Line
Americans’ confidence in the economy has remained securely in the negative range of -11 to -17 since early July after posting higher values in late 2014 and early 2015.
Comparatively, confidence is much higher than it was in the better part of the last several years. But with turbulence on Wall Street and in international markets, improvement may not be on the horizon.
Discussion about this post