Tens of thousands rallied in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi on October 4-5 to protest local elections in which the country’s increasingly authoritarian ruling party, Georgian Dream, claimed victory. While Georgians are overwhelmingly pro-Western, the former Soviet republic’s democratic backslide has upended their Euro-Atlantic aspirations and allowed Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran to cultivate influence at the West’s expense.
Keti Korkiya
Research Analyst
Georgia’s Disputed Elections and Public Outcry
Following the October 4 municipal elections, Georgia’s Central Election Commission swiftly awarded sweeping wins to Georgian Dream. Opposition and civil society groups had boycotted the elections, characterizing them as illegitimate and part of a broader pattern of manipulation and repression by the ruling party. Police resorted to water cannons and pepper spray against protesters who attempted to storm the presidential palace.
Last weekend’s uproar followed similar protests over 2024 parliamentary elections that the European Parliament deemed “neither free nor fair.” Georgian authorities responded to those demonstrations with violent crackdowns, jailing opposition figures and increasing domestic surveillance. Opposition leaders are now making a renewed push for new, internationally supervised parliamentary elections.
Ivanishvili’s Shadow Rule, State Capture, and Turn Toward Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran
At the center of Georgia’s political crisis is Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder of Georgian Dream, who briefly served as prime minister after his party rose to power in 2012. He made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s and is believed to maintain business interests in the country. Although he currently holds no formal office, Ivanishvili remains the country’s de facto decision-maker.
His regime has steadily eroded Georgia’s democratic institutions and civil liberties, enacting Russian-style laws targeting independent media and NGOs and adopting Chinese surveillance tools. In concert, Georgian Dream has steered the country away from the West, suspending its EU accession process last year despite overwhelming opposition from the Georgian people.
Last December, Washington sanctioned Ivanishvili for “undermining the democratic and Euro-Atlantic future of Georgia for the benefit of the Russian Federation.” Following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Georgia has emerged as a conduit for Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions.
Since coming to power in 2012, Georgian Dream has handed Chinese companies contracts to build a major highway and to construct and manage the Port of Anaklia, strategically significant due to its location on the Black Sea. This has prompted warnings from U.S. officials about entanglement in Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. Earlier this year, the Ivanishvili-linked Kutaisi International University signed a cooperation memorandum with China’s Huawei to establish a Huawei ICT Academy — which offers training, internships, and access to Huawei technologies — as part of the university’s goal to become a regional tech hub.
Georgian Dream has also grown closer with Tehran. In 2024, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze attended the funeral of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, where the crowd chanted “death to America.”
Strategic Stakes and the U.S. Path Forward
Washington should make clear to Georgian Dream that it will face consequences for subverting the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the Georgian people. America and its allies should expand and rigorously enforce targeted sanctions against individuals implicated in corruption, electoral manipulation, and human rights abuses.
For starters, the U.S. Treasury Department should build on the 2024 designation of Ivanishvili by tracing and then targeting his assets, which the billionaire has likely sought to hide from U.S. sanctions. The United States should also impose financial sanctions and visa restrictions against Georgian Dream officials, propagandists, and financial enablers.
By supporting the Georgian people in their fight for democracy, the United States can help contain, Iranian, Russian, and Chinese influence in a strategically significant region linking Europe and Asia.
Keti Korkiya is a research analyst in the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
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