The FINANCIAL — The fact that Ukraine has suspended its plans to sign far reaching political and trade agreements with the European Union should result in Georgia’s faster integration with the EU, experts say.
The FINANCIAL — The fact that Ukraine has suspended its plans to sign far reaching political and trade agreements with the European Union should result in Georgia’s faster integration with the EU, experts say. Georgia is initiating an Association Agreement at the Vilnius Summit, on 28-29 November, and will be signing the Agreement finally in 2014. Given recent developments, however, the processes may be sped up and Georgia may be integrated with the EU earlier than previously expected.
Ukraine’s decision not to sign the agreements at a major conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, is considered a victory for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. He had manoeuvred forcefully to derail the plans, which he regarded a serious threat, an economic version of the West’s effort to build military power by expanding NATO eastward. In September, similar pressure by Russia forced Armenia to abandon its talks with the Europeans.
Next up could be Georgia. Russia will now try to put pressure on Georgia and try to suspend its integration with the EU. Especially given the fact that one third of Georgia’s territory is occupied by Russia, whose military forces stand about 50 km away from the capital Tbilisi.
“I hope that the EU will make the adequate conclusions and that Ukraine’s case will help Georgia to move quickly to the signing phase and Georgia will sign the Association Agreement earlier than was projected,” said Davit Zalkaliani, Georgia’s First Deputy Foreign Minister.
Factsheet:
• Georgia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) relations officially began in 1994 when Georgia joined the NATO-run Partnership for Peace.
• A nonbinding referendum in 2008 resulted in 77% of voters supporting NATO accession.
• Relations between the EU and Georgia started in 1992 just after Georgia regained its sovereignty in the wake of the break-up of the Soviet Union.
• Russian banned import of Georgian products to Russia in 2006.
• Russian recognized the independence of breakaway regions Abkhazia and Samachablo in 2008, following military intervention in these republics.
“Unfortunately Ukraine suspended its integration process with the EU, but I do hope that the EU’s door is not permanently closed to Ukraine and that one day an Association Agreement will be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Ukraine’s decision will not affect Georgia’s decision to be part of the EU. Georgia has firmly decided to initiate an Association Agreement at the Vilnius Summit including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. Georgia will face a very important but difficult period at the same time after the Vilnius Summit, as Georgia will be moved to the phase when the country will be preparing for the signing of the Association Agreement,” Zalkaliani added.
“The fact that Ukraine suspended its plans to sign far-reaching political and trade agreements with the European Union will positively affect Georgia’s relations with the EU,” said Kakha Gogolashvili, International Relations Expert. “The European Union will be more motivated to further support those countries that are stably on their way to joining the EU. Using the example of Georgia, the Union will show Ukraine how preferable it could be for Ukraine to be integrated with the EU. The Union will be more focused on having a friendly relationship with Georgia. In general, Ukraine will be integrated with the EU sooner or later but its hesitation will have a negative impact on the Eastern Partnership. Russia may seek to exert pressure on Georgia, but the EU will be more active in supporting Georgia, including financial support as well,” he added.
The Ukrainian Government said that its decree suspending preparations for the Summit was forced by national security concerns related to trade problems with Russia. A government statement said the decision had been taken to protect Ukraine’s “national security”. The Ukrainian Government said that it was instead looking into setting up a joint commission to promote ties between Ukraine, Russia and the European Union. Russian officials said they welcomed any Ukrainian moves to foster closer relations. Russia wants Ukraine to join its own customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, which it sees as a prototype rival to the European Union.
“Ukraine had come under intense pressure from Russia not to sign the historic EU deal at the Summit next week,” said Irakli Menagarishvili, expert, Head of the Georgian Council on Foreign Relations. “The danger is that Russia expressed its plans to restore a modified Soviet Union which will have a new name – the Eurasian Union. In 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. Putin plans to bring post-Soviet countries into a Russia-led Eurasian Union. If Ukraine digresses from the EU road the process of building the Eurasian Union will be easier for Russia. Russia may also offer Georgia to be united in the Eurasian Union and it may put pressure upon Georgia. One quarter of Georgian territory is occupied by Russia and this is the best lever for it to threaten Georgia. By the way, the fact that one neighbouring county fails does not mean that another should be promoted,” he added.
In November 2011, the presidents of Kazakhstan and Belarus signed an agreement with Russia to launch the Eurasian Union and make it fully operational by 2015.
Despite the fact that the European Union’s foreign ministers, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, warned Russia several times to stop pressuring East European countries who are seeking closer relations with the EU, the fact is that Russia still could have influence on Ukraine.
“This is a missed opportunity,” British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement about Ukraine’s decision, while EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said it was a “disappointment” for both the EU and the people of Ukraine.
“Despite the pressure from Russia Georgia will continue its integration with the EU,” said Zalkaliani.
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