Ukraine’s Strategy Attack Moscow

The FINANCIAL — Given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent drone attacks, it is plausible that drones could target Moscow on May 9, 2025, especially during the high-profile Victory Day parade. However, this is speculative and depends on Ukraine’s strategic priorities, which may lean toward diplomacy given ceasefire negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Russia’s proposed 72-hour ceasefire as unserious and accused Moscow of creating a favorable atmosphere for the parade, suggesting potential risks. He noted Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of foreign dignitaries, implying possible actions, though not explicitly confirming drone attacks.

No similar statements or actions were reported for May 9, 2024.

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Ukraine might consider intensifying drone attacks on Moscow on May 7 and 8, 2025, before leaders of authoritarian regimes arrive for the May 9 Victory Day parade, as a strategic move to disrupt preparations without directly endangering high-profile attendees like Chinese President Xi Jinping

Moscow’s air defenses include advanced systems like the S-400 and Pantsir, designed to counter drones. However, recent attacks, such as the March 11, 2025, incident where 91 drones targeted Moscow, show vulnerabilities, with casualties and damage reported despite defenses.

Official reports confirm a major drone attack on March 11, 2025, with 337 drones launched, 91 targeting Moscow, resulting in three deaths and 18 injuries. Another incident on May 5, 2025, saw four drones intercepted, with no damage, highlighting ongoing threats.

Ukraine has the capability to target Moscow with drones, as shown by recent large-scale attacks.

Ukraine’s Capabilities

Evidence leans toward Ukraine having significant drone capabilities, demonstrated by the March 11, 2025, attack involving 337 drones, with 91 over Moscow, targeting strategic sites like oil refineries.

This shows their ability to strike deep into Russian territory.Official reports confirm a major drone attack on March 11, 2025, with 337 drones launched, 91 targeting Moscow, resulting in three deaths and 18 injuries.

Another incident on May 5, 2025, saw four drones intercepted, with no damage, highlighting ongoing threats.Ukrainian officials have not explicitly confirmed plans for drone attacks on Moscow on May 9, 2025, but their recent rhetoric and actions suggest a strategic intent to maintain pressure on Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected Russia’s proposed 72-hour ceasefire for May 8–10, 2025, calling it “cynicism” and pushing for a 30-day truce aimed at a permanent ceasefire, indicating a reluctance to pause military operations without broader assurances (Al Jazeera).Zelenskyy also warned that Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of foreign leaders attending the parade, citing potential Russian provocations that could be blamed on Ukraine, which could be interpreted as a subtle hint of readiness to disrupt the event, though not explicitly confirming an attack (Al Jazeera).

Moscow’s air defenses are advanced but have shown vulnerabilities, potentially allowing drone strikes to succeed.

Recent Ukrainian actions, such as the March 11, 2025, drone attack involving 337 drones (91 targeting Moscow), demonstrate their capability and willingness to strike deep into Russian territory, including strategic targets like the Moscow Oil Refinery (The New York Times).

Ukrainian military officials, such as Andriy Kovalenko from the National Security Council, have framed such attacks as signals to Russia of Ukraine’s resilience, potentially to strengthen its position in ceasefire negotiations. There are also unconfirmed reports of psychological operations, such as using “deepfakes” to spread fears of attacks, prompting Russia to redeploy defenses, which aligns with Ukraine’s history of information warfare (Al Jazeera).

Russian officials have expressed significant concern about potential Ukrainian drone attacks, particularly around the May 9 parade, which will host foreign leaders from China, Brazil, and others. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported on May 5, 2025, that Russian air defenses intercepted four drones approaching Moscow, with no damage, following a larger attack on March 11, 2025, described as the largest on Moscow since the war began, resulting in three deaths (Reuters).

Russian officials have signaled robust preparations, with unconfirmed reports suggesting deployment of approximately 280 air defense units, including S-400 systems and advanced radars, around Moscow for the event, though these numbers are likely exaggerated (Al Jazeera).

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, warned that Kyiv might not “survive to see May 10” if Ukraine attacked during the celebrations, indicating a strong retaliatory stance (Al Jazeera). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova have labeled similar incidents as “terrorism,” framing Ukrainian drone strikes as provocations justifying escalation. President Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a 72-hour ceasefire from May 8–10, 2025, was undermined by continued Ukrainian attacks, with Putin stating Russian forces would respond if attacked, suggesting a conditional pause (Al Jazeera).

Russia’s Claim of Winning WWII Alone: Russia claims it defeated Nazi Germany single-handedly to bolster national pride and Putin’s narrative of Russian exceptionalism. This ignores the Allies’ critical contributions—U.S. Lend-Lease aid, UK’s air and naval campaigns, and joint efforts on the Western Front. Soviet propaganda historically downplayed Allied roles to emphasize the Red Army’s sacrifices (27 million Soviet deaths), framing the victory as a solely Russian triumph to unify the nation and justify geopolitical ambitions.

2024 May Parade in Moscow

Russia had only one tank in its big Victory Day military parade in 2024, and it was a World War II relic.

During the parade, Russian soldiers were equipped with what appeared to be drone jammers given the fear that there would be Ukrainian attacks during the ceremonies.

For the first time since the 2015 Moscow Victory Day Parade, a president from an African nation was invited to the parade, as Umaro Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau was in attendance. It was the last Victory Day parade for Sergei Shoigu performing the duties of Minister of Defence, as three days after the parade, he was not reappointed to the position..

Ukraine did not celebrate Victory Day on May 8 2024, focusing instead on Europe Day, aligning with EU values.

It is expected that Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as Presidents of another 10 countries will attend the ceremony in Moscow this year.
Ukraine’s relationship with China could significantly influence its decision on whether to launch a drone attack on Moscow during the May 9, 2025, Victory Day parade.

China, a key global player and confirmed attendee of the parade through President Xi Jinping, has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, advocating for diplomacy while deepening ties with Russia. Ukraine has sought to engage China economically and diplomatically, viewing it as a potential mediator in ceasefire talks, as evidenced by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s 2024 visit to Beijing. An attack on Moscow, especially during a high-profile event with Xi present, risks alienating China, damaging Ukraine’s diplomatic leverage and economic prospects, such as trade and reconstruction aid.
Putin might be using Xi and other Presidents as the shield to save 2025 parade.

Pentagon estimates over 600,000 Russian troops killed or injured since February 2022, with September 2024 as the deadliest month, averaging 1,271 casualties daily. UK intelligence aligns, estimating 950,000 total losses (dead and wounded) by May 2025, including 175,000–200,000 casualties by February 2023, with 40,000–60,000 killed. European intelligence, per leaked U.S. documents, reported 189,500–223,000 Russian casualties by February 2023, including 35,500–43,000 killed. These figures dwarf Russia’s post-WWII conflicts, reflecting heavy attrition against Ukraine’s defenses.

Ukraine might consider intensifying drone attacks on Moscow on May 7 and 8, 2025, before foreign leaders arrive for the May 9 Victory Day parade, as a strategic move to disrupt preparations without directly endangering high-profile attendees like Chinese President Xi Jinping

Moscow’s air defense system is one of the most advanced globally, designed to protect the capital from aerial threats, including drones. Intelligence reports detail a layered defense structure: Composition: Includes long-range systems like the S-400 Triumf (effective up to 400 km) and S-500 Prometheus, mid-range systems like the S-300 series, and short-range systems like Pantsir-S1 and Tor-M2, supported by advanced radars (Don-2N, Nebo-M) and electronic warfare (EW) systems to jam drone signals (Forbes).

Performance: On May 5, 2025, four drones were intercepted near Podolsk, with no damage, suggesting effective detection (Al Jazeera). However, the March 11, 2025, attack saw 91 drones targeting Moscow, with 74 shot down, but some caused damage, killing three and disrupting air traffic, indicating saturation challenges (The New York Times).

Limitations: Large-scale, multi-directional attacks can overwhelm defenses, especially with low-flying, autonomous drones like the An-126 Liutyi, used in the March attack. Urban constraints and EW vulnerabilities, though mitigated by Ukraine’s anti-jamming technology, pose additional challenges (CSIS). A July 2023 incident near the Russian Defense Ministry showed an advanced system failing to intercept drones within 300 meters, highlighting potential gaps (Business Insider).

Russia’s Attack on Poland in the 1940s: The Soviet Union invaded eastern Poland on September 17, 1939, under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact’s secret protocol, which divided Poland between Nazi Germany and the USSR. Stalin aimed to reclaim territories lost post-WWI, create a buffer against Germany, and expand Soviet influence. The invasion, following Germany’s attack on September 1, 1939, led to Poland’s partition, Soviet occupation of 200,000 square kilometers, and mass repressions, including the Katyn massacre.

Ukraine’s Capabilities to Target Moscow: Intelligence Reports

Intelligence reports and recent events demonstrate Ukraine’s growing drone capabilities to target Moscow:

The March 11, 2025, attack involved 337 drones, with 91 targeting Moscow, targeting strategic sites like the Moscow Oil Refinery, showing long-range strike capability (The New York Times). The Lyutyi drone, responsible for up to 80% of successful attacks on Russian oil refineries, is a key asset, though not fully autonomous (CSIS).

Previous attacks, such as the May 2023 Kremlin strike and a June 2023 attack targeting suspected intelligence officer homes, indicate precision targeting deep inside Russia (NBC News, BBC).

The Atlantic Council notes Ukraine’s air offensive in 2025, using domestically produced drones and Western-supplied intelligence, has caused significant damage to Russian military assets (Atlantic Council).

Official Data on Drone Attacks in Moscow

Official data from Russian sources, as reported by international news outlets, confirm significant drone attacks in Moscow in 2025:

March 11, 2025: Ukraine launched 337 drones, with 91 targeting the Moscow region, resulting in three deaths, 18 injuries, and temporary closures of four Moscow airports. Damage included residential buildings and railway tracks near Domodedovo airport (The New York Times, Reuters).

May 5, 2025: Four drones were intercepted near Podolsk, with no reported damage or injuries, occurring just days before the May 9 parade, highlighting ongoing threats (Al Jazeera).

Synthesis and Likelihood Assessment

Given the above, it is plausible that drones could attack Moscow on May 9, 2025, especially to disrupt the Victory Day parade, a high-profile event symbolizing Russian power. Ukraine’s demonstrated capability, recent attacks timed with significant events (e.g., March 11 coinciding with peace talks), and Zelenskyy’s warnings about parade security support this possibility. However, risks of escalation and Ukraine’s focus on ceasefire talks may temper overt aggression. Russian defenses, while advanced, have shown vulnerabilities, particularly against large-scale drone barrages, but reported deployments for May 9 suggest preparedness. The likelihood remains speculative, with psychological operations potentially achieving strategic goals without physical attacks.

Table: Summary of Recent Drone Attacks on Moscow in 2025