The FINANCIAL -- In 2017/18 MY, Ukraine supplied nearly 25% of all export shipments of grain crops to the EU countries, which turned the region into one of the leading among the key sales markets.
The current dry weather conditions and reduced yield figures of crops in the EU give rise to the growth of the imports by European countries, which in turn will entail the corresponding development of the grain supplying from Ukraine, declared the analyst at APK-Inform Agency, Andrei Kupchenko during his report at the agro-logistics forum "Dnieper-Danube-Black Sea" in Mykolaiv.
According to A.Kupchenko, corn is the main crop exported from Ukraine to the EU. In October-July of the current MY, Ukraine exported nearly 7.6 mln tonnes of corn to the EU, which covered 44% of the export shipments, and 45% of the forecasted imports to the EU (17 mln tonnes). According to the USDA estimations, in 2018/19 MY the imports of corn to the EU will increase to 18 mln tonnes, which will also impact on the demand for the Ukrainian grain. But the qualitative figures of the future harvest still remain an open question.
Also, A.Kupchenko focused on the significant increase of the exports of Ukrainian corn to China, which in October-July of 2017/18 MY reached 2.7 mln tonnes (up 80% compared with the same period last season), which formed almost 68% of the forecasted imports of the country (4 mln tonnes). Next season, China plans to import 5 mln tonnes of corn, which also improves the prospects for foreign sales of Ukrainian grain.
At the same time, China is the prospective sales market for Ukrainian barley. The USDA analysts estimated the import volumes of barley to China in 2017/18 MY at the level of 8.2 mln tonnes, and in 2018/19 MY — 9.5 mln tonnes. Also, in 2017/18 MY the supplies of barley from Ukraine to China totaled 0.8 mln tonnes only, and in July 2018 the volumes even decreased by 63% compared with the same month last season. At the same time, the current dry weather conditions in Australia, which is the main supplier of barley to China, may somewhat improve the prospects of the Ukrainian grain on the Chinese market, concluded the analyst.