The FINANCIAL — Turkey’s decades-long quest to join the European Union remains mired in political and diplomatic challenges, even as its military prowess positions it as a potential linchpin in the Black Sea region alongside Ukraine. Official statements and statistics from the EU, U.S., and Turkish governments reveal a complex interplay of aspirations, setbacks, and geopolitical stakes, with Turkey’s role in regional security increasingly under scrutiny amid Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine.
Turkey’s EU Bid: A Stalled Journey
Turkey’s ambition to integrate with Europe dates back to 1959, when it applied to join the European Economic Community, the EU’s predecessor. The 1963 Ankara Agreement laid the groundwork, and by 1999, Turkey was granted candidate status. Accession negotiations began in 2005, with the European Council heralding it as a step toward a “stable, democratic, and prosperous Turkey.” Yet, progress has faltered. According to the European Commission’s 2023 Turkey Report, only 16 of 35 negotiating chapters have been opened, with just one closed provisionally. The EU cites “serious backsliding” on democracy, rule of law, and human rights as key barriers, pointing to Turkey’s post-2016 coup crackdowns and the 2017 constitutional shift consolidating power under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Erdoğan remains defiant. In a July 2023 statement during a NATO summit in Vilnius, he tied Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO bid to EU membership talks, declaring, “The European Union cannot truly be a global actor without Türkiye.” He has repeatedly framed Turkey’s exclusion as “strategic blindness,” arguing that its population of 85 million and economic potential—bolstered by a €206 billion trade volume with the EU in 2023—make it indispensable. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reinforced this in August 2023, stating, “Türkiye’s disrupted EU accession process weakens Europe’s strategic position.”
The EU, however, remains skeptical. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in a February 2025 address, emphasized that “Türkiye’s future lies with Europe, but only if it recommits to the rule of law.” The 2023 report highlighted a mere 10% alignment with EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), down from 97% in 2007, citing Turkey’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia over Ukraine as a stark divergence. Cyprus, an EU member since 2004, further complicates matters. Turkey’s non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus and its military presence in Northern Cyprus have frozen eight negotiating chapters since 2006.
U.S. officials, while not directly involved in EU talks, have weighed in due to NATO ties. In a November 2023 briefing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the EU to “keep Türkiye anchored in the West,” noting its strategic role amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. Yet, Washington has also criticized Turkey’s democratic erosion, with a 2023 State Department report documenting restrictions on free expression and judicial independence.
Military Might in the Black Sea
Turkey’s EU struggles contrast with its growing military stature, particularly in the Black Sea, where it vies with Ukraine to counter Russian dominance. With NATO’s second-largest army—373,200 active troops and 378,700 reservists, per the International Institute for Strategic Studies—Turkey commands a formidable presence. Its control of the Bosphorus Strait, affirmed by the 1936 Montreux Convention, allows it to regulate naval access, a leverage point underscored when it barred Russian warships from transiting during the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Turkey’s defense industry has surged, with exports like the Bayraktar TB2 drone proving decisive in Ukraine’s resistance. The Turkish Defense Ministry reported in 2024 that drone sales to over 25 nations, including EU members Poland and Romania, generated $3.2 billion in revenue. Erdoğan boasted in March 2025, after a London summit, “It is inconceivable to establish European security without Türkiye,” a claim bolstered by the planned Ochamchire naval base in occupied Abkhazia, set to host frigates and submarines by 2026.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has revitalized its Black Sea ambitions despite Russia’s blockade. The Ukrainian Navy, though smaller at 15,000 personnel, has sunk or damaged over 20 Russian vessels since 2022 using drones and Western-supplied missiles, per Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. A January 2025 statement from President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed a “new corridor” for grain exports via the Black Sea, facilitated by Turkish mediation, as a “strategic victory.” Ukraine’s 2023 defense budget of $44 billion, heavily subsidized by U.S. and EU aid, contrasts with Turkey’s $15.8 billion, yet Kyiv’s focus on asymmetric warfare complements Ankara’s conventional strength.
Chances of Dominance: Turkey vs. Ukraine
Turkey’s odds of emerging as the Black Sea’s preeminent military power hinge on its ability to balance relations with Russia, Ukraine, and the West. Its refusal to join EU sanctions—trade with Russia rose 60% to $45 billion in 2023, per Turkish government data—has drawn ire but preserved economic leverage. The U.S. has supplied Turkey with $1.2 billion in military aid since 2018, including F-16 upgrades, yet hesitates to deepen commitments given Ankara’s S-400 purchase from Russia in 2019.
Ukraine’s trajectory depends on sustained Western support. The EU has pledged €50 billion through 2027, while the U.S. contributed $61 billion in military aid by 2024, dwarfing Turkey’s assistance. However, Ukraine’s naval losses—over 80% of its pre-2014 fleet—limit its reach compared to Turkey’s 186-vessel navy, including 12 submarines.
Analysts see a complementary dynamic. “Turkey has the hardware and geography, while Ukraine has the resolve and Western backing,” said Sinan Ülgen of the Carnegie Europe think tank. Turkey’s EU limbo could paradoxically enhance its Black Sea clout, freeing it from Brussels’ constraints, though Russian retaliation remains a risk. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s Security Council deputy head, warned in February 2025 that “any escalation in the Black Sea will face a decisive response,” signaling Moscow’s unease with both Ankara and Kyiv.
Outlook
Turkey’s EU membership chances appear slim without democratic reforms and a Cyprus resolution—hurdles Erdoğan shows little appetite to clear. The EU’s 2023 report projected no breakthroughs before 2027, absent “significant political will.” Yet, its military ascent in the Black Sea, alongside Ukraine, could force a reevaluation. As Blinken noted, “Türkiye’s role is too critical to ignore.” Whether this translates to EU leverage or a pivot to regional dominance remains an open question in a theater where power, not promises, may dictate the future.
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