The FINANCIAL — Turkey's exports increased in April to $11.8 billion, keeping the rate of increase in exports for the first four months of 2011 at more than 22 percent compared to the same period last year, the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) said on Sunday.
Export numbers for April were announced by TİM President Mehmet Büyükekşi during a press conference in Gaziantep, where he said Turkey had exported nearly $43.3 billion overseas in the January-April period, up 22.2 percent from a year ago. If this sharp growth trend in exports continues at a similar pace for the rest of the year, Turkey will reach a record-high export volume of some $135 billion, Ekşi told reporters at the meeting.
April's increase in the export sector came despite the fact that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been experiencing havoc, and also while the Turkish lira has gained notable value against the US dollar because of present uncertainties in the world's largest economy. Büyükekşi stated that exports to the MENA region have dramatically declined, nearing almost zero in Libya. However, recent revolts in Syria have not affected exports to this country yet, he said.
With the relationship between Turkey and Syria gaining momentum in the near past and reaching a high point with the removal of visa requirements, the latter gained special importance for trade prospects in Turkey’s southeastern region in general, and Gaziantep in particular.
Professor Üstün Dikeç of Çankaya University in Ankara says that the impact of recent events in Syria on Turkish exports will be seen in the short to medium term. He points out to the economic recovery of varying margins in the Euro zone which mainly dominated the second half of 2010. Taking into account the fact that Turkey’s share of exports to the said zone is about 52 percent, Dikeç says the increase in the first four months of this year in exports is mainly a result of a recovery by European Union countries from the global financial crisis.
“As you know Turkey is one of the few countries that recovered well after the global crisis. The decline in demand for Turkey’s goods and services by Europeans during the global crisis has disappeared as those economies have also started recover [from the impact of the global financial crisis], although at a lesser place. Since Turkey’s exports are mainly driven by demand in those countries it is expected that this upward trend will continue for the rest of the year,” Dikeç said, implying that record-high export revenues for Turkey this year is a strong possibility.
However, the situation in the MENA region is not gloomy for all. Egypt and Tunisia seems to be on a more stabilized path, with improving democratic conditions. As Büyükekşi said to the media during a meeting in Gaziantep, once the situation settles down and democracy takes over in the respective regimes in the MENA region, Turkey’s trade will benefit “tremendously” as the level of wealth of the citizens of such countries rises. “I am not all that pessimistic,” he said.
On the other hand, exporters in Turkey occasionally criticize policies by the Central Bank of Turkey, accusing it of acting “too slow” while they cry out against what they call the “overvalued” local currency. Dikeç says that despite criticisms, the central bank has been consistent in keeping the value of the Turkish lira within a thin band, thus it has not allowed any significant fluctuations, even during the period of the global crisis. He said exporters are, on the contrary, benefitting such consistent policies by the bank. “The continued increase in exports serves as proof of this fact,” Dikeç noted. “If anything, the exchange rate might have affected imports due to energy needs. In order to meet the demands of foreign countries you need to produce more and thus need extra energy input,” Dikeç added.
The professor singled out Iraq among the MENA countries to which Turkey’s exports have increased notably in the first four months of the year. In a recent article, Today’s Zaman showed that gains in Turkish exports to Iraq would be enough for Turkey to make up for losses caused by the uprisings in the MENA region. Speaking to Today’s Zaman at the time, Büyükekşi had confirmed this by saying that a recent visit that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made to the Middle Eastern nation would substantially contribute to Turkey’s exports to the country.
Discussion about this post