The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China dipped by 0.3 percent in November 2023 to 152.3 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.2 percent in October. The LEI fell by 1.7 percent from May to November of 2023, a slightly larger rate of contraction following a 1.6 percent drop over the previous six months.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China also declined by 0.3 percent in November 2023 to 144.9 (2016=100), partially reversing a 0.7 percent increase in October. Despite the month-over-month decline, the CEI grew by 3.7 percent in the six-month period between May and November of 2023, materially faster than the 2.6 percent growth rate between November 2022 and May of 2023.
“The LEI for China fell again,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The decline was fueled by non-financial components: the consumer expectations index was the largest negative contributor, followed by the PMI: Manufacturing: New Export Orders, the Logistics Prosperity Index, and machinery and transport equipment imports. Negative leading index readings, on both an annual and semi-annual basis, suggest a challenging economic environment ahead. The Conference Board predicts that China’s real GDP will grow at a pace of 5.2 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will slow to 4.1 percent year-over-year in 2024.”
The China LEI continued to decline in November
Most of the China LEI components fell in the month
The LEI continues to signal challenges for the economy ahead
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
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