The FINANCIAL — Georgians are not very keen on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, especially when compared to many Middle Eastern and North African countries. Those few Georgians who do support a nuclear Iran are in agreement with the Arab world that Iran’s ambitions are for general self-defense, rather than for religious conflict.
In August of 2012, our Turkish colleagues at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) conducted a survey in 16 Middle East and North African countries, including Iran. They asked a wide variety of questions aimed at understanding Turkey’s place in the minds of their neighbors, which included asking about Iran’s nuclear program. Out of curiosity, we at GORBI included the same question in our most recent survey in July.
Overall, 37% of those surveyed in the MENA countries favor an Iranian nuclear program either “strongly” or “somewhat,” while 44% stated opposition. The remaining 19% either didn’t give an answer or said they “neither favor nor oppose.” Parsing the data reveals a very wide divide between countries, however.
Predictably, Iranians are the most supportive of their own program, though not exactly unanimously: a narrow 51% favor their government’s pursuit of nukes, while 35% are against. Beyond Iran, Egyptians are most supportive of a nuclear weapons program (43%), followed by 37% of Syrians. Opposition in the region is greatest in Saudi Arabia (70%), Iraq (61%) and the Gulf countries (53%), but even more Georgians oppose than in any of the MENA countries (73%).
Not so predictably, support and opposition to Iran’s nuclear ambitions do not follow any discernible Sunni – Shiite lines. As mentioned above, Shiite Iran finds its greatest nuclear support in primarily Sunni Egypt and Syria, while their greatest opponents are found inmore divided Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Instead, a better explanation comes from proximity and past conflict.
Countries in the gulf are more likely to get pulled into regional problems in which Iran is involved simply by proximity, as well as shared energy concerns and interest in the Persian Gulf (a major transport thoroughfare). Meanwhile Iraqis are probably right to be worried, both in remembrance of the brutal 80s war with their neighbor, as well as Iranian interference in recent internal politics.
Reasons — In addition to the simple “favor/oppose” scale, we included Tesev’s question on reasons behind support. Despite Georgians’ overall opposition, Georgian supporters’ reasoning agrees with others’ overall: it’s about general self-defense. Nearly every Georgian who supported Iran’s program said it was “to ensure its own security,” compared to a much smaller percentage who mentioned Israel or “defense of Islam.”
Please keep in mind while looking at the statistics for the second question that margins of error are much higher. Countries where very few people support a nuclear Iranhave far fewer respondents for the second question. The only confident conclusion we can draw is that more supporters of the program believe that Iran should have nukes for self-defense rather than for specific ends.
Margins of error for the first question are 2% for the whole of MENA and 3% for Georgia, while the second questions’ margins are as high as 7% for MENA and 20% for Georgia, all with 95% confidence.Visit our website at gorbi.com for more articles.
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