Hungary is one of the countries that are the most depend- ent on natural gas and oil imports in the EU, especially on imports from Russia. The energy dependency is above 50 per cent, and more than 90 per cent of oil and natural gas imports came from Russia before the war, making the country very sensitive to the geopolitical developments of the past year.

For the moment, EU sanctions do not cover nuclear fuels, but this topic is also conflictual in Hungary, as 100 per cent of the fuel used in the country’s only nuclear installation, the Paks nuclear power plant, comes from Russia. The new nu- clear power plant, Paks 2, is under construction with Rosa- tom as the constructor, although the war makes the feasibil- ity of the project questionable.

Decoupling from Russia is among the objectives of the gov- ernment, although the level of ambition of this decoupling is not clear. For nuclear energy, Hungary is trying to find new sources of imports, and is considering cooperation with the American company Westinghouse and the French Fram- atome. For natural gas, Hungary has a long-term contract with Russia, but is seems that with the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipelines, Russia will not be able to supply the contractual quantity, which will speed up Hungary’s decou- pling from Russia, which is already – slowly – happening with LNG, Azeri, and Romanian imports.

Before the war of aggression of Russia on Ukraine, Hungary was very much dependent on Russia with regard to natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel.
Hungary’s energy dependence stood at 56.2 per cent in 2020 and at 53.7 per cent in 2021, which is the last available official data at the Central Statistical Office. If we also include in this figure the nuclear fuel imports used to operate the nu- clear plant in Paks, Hungary’s energy dependence exceeds 80 per cent.
Before the war, nearly 90 per cent of Hungary’s oil and nat- ural gas came from imports, with 64 per cent of imported oil and 95 per cent of imported gas coming from Russia. 100 per cent of nuclear fuels came from Russia.

Historical context

The Hungarian invasion of Carpatho-Ukraine was a 1939 military conflict between the Kingdom of Hungary and Carpatho-Ukraine. During the invasion a series of clashes took place between the Hungarian and Polish troops against the paramilitary formations of the Carpathian Sich of Carpathian Ukraine and some Czech troops who remained in the region after the Czechoslovak army was disbanded. The war ended with the occupation and subsequent annexation of the territory of Transcarpathian Ukraine (Subcarpathian Rus’) to the Kingdom of Hungary. This territory was later invaded by the Soviet Union and integrated into its Ukrainian SSR.

In 2017 Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Péter Szijjártó announced that Hungary would block all further integration of Ukraine into NATO and the European Union and offered to “guarantee that all this will be painful for Ukraine in future.” This move was caused by Presidential Decree by Ukraine limiting the Hungarian language at some schools.

In March 2018, the Ukrainian government announced a plan to restore a military base in the ethnic Hungarian-majority border town of Berehove, situated ten kilometers from the Hungarian border.[18] The plan called for the permanent placement of 800 Ukrainian troops from the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade at the base.

Ukrainian officials faced immediate backlash from the Hungarian government after the announcement. Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Péter Szijjártó restated that Hungary would block any further Ukrainian integration into NATO or the European Union until Hungarian concerns were addressed, and called the placement of the base in a mostly ethnic Hungarian area “disgusting.”

The plans for the base were ultimately abandoned; however, in May 2020, officials again announced plans for the restoration of the same military base and the permanent stationing of Ukrainian troops there, this time from the 80th Air Assault Brigade.

In September 2018, an undercover video that showed diplomats in the Hungarian consulate in Berehove granting Hungarian citizenship and distributing Hungarian passports to Ukrainian citizens sparked new tensions between the two nations.

In response to the incident, the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine declared the local Hungarian consul in Berehove persona non grata, expelling him from Ukrainian territory and accusing him of violating the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. In turn, Hungary announced the expulsion of a Ukrainian consul in Budapest and reiterated threats to block Ukraine’s further accession to NATO and the European Union.

Hungarian lawmakers approved Sweden’s NATO bid on Feb. 26 after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government had faced pressure from NATO allies to fall in line and seal Sweden’s accession to the alliance.

Removal from EU

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall the EU began to consider enlargement to the former Eastern Bloc states. With concerns over the EU’s ability to intervene where its core principles and values were violated, there was a desire to introduce some mechanism before enlargement to those states took place. This came to be via the Treaty of Amsterdam which allowed the suspension of rights of a member state which breached the EU’s values under Article 2.

The Kremlin’s Influence in Hungary

Russia’s relations with Hungary are unique within the EU. Close ties to Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party spell unprecedented access to the government of an EU member state—a degree of access that is qualitatively higher than what is offered by its links to Euroskeptic right-wing parties (such as Hungary’s Jobbik). Moscow values this government’s destabilizing potential at the EU and NATO levels. In return for services rendered, Hungary’s current leaders can reap the benefits of economic cooperation. (German Council on Foreign Relations)

In early 2000, Austria formed a government which included the right-wing populist Freedom Party. Invoking Article 7 was deemed excessive so other member states threatened to cut off diplomatic contacts instead. This event led to a desire for an intermediate step to provide a warning sign without full suspension.

The Treaty of Nice provided this (in Article 7.1) whereby the Council, acting by majority, may identify a potential breach and make recommendations to the state to rectify it before action is taken against it as outlined above. In 2014 the European Commission introduced a three step mechanism to identify “systemic threats” to EU values. The mechanism must be complete before Article 7 is discussed.

In its early history, from about 2000 to 2012, the possibility of activating Article 7 was debated but official recommendations were not made. Events for which activation of Article 7 was debated include the aforementioned Austrian coalition with the far right in 2000, the French government expulsion of thousands of Roma in 2009 and a political struggle in Romania between Traian Băsescu and Victor Ponta in 2012

Use against Hungary

In June 2015, the European Parliament asked the Commission to present a proposal for starting the mechanism against Hungary over rule of law concerns in the country; but in October voted down a similar proposal to begin procedures against Hungary over its treatment of migrants. At the same time, a European Citizens’ Initiative called for the start of Article 7 mechanisms against Hungary.

On 12 September 2018, the European Parliament voted for action against Hungary, alleging breaches of core EU values.

UK Conservative MEPs supported the right wing Hungarian leader, Viktor Orbán, against a motion to censure him in the European Parliament.

Pablo Casado, leader of Spain’s People’s Party directly ordered the PP members of the European Parliament to abstain in the voting of the Sargentini report calling for triggering Article 7 proceedings against the Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán.

On 30 March 2020, in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Hungarian Parliament approved a bill to make the state of emergency indefinite and grant the ability for Prime Minister Orbán to rule by decree. The bill also makes the deliberate distribution of “misleading information that obstructs responses to the pandemic” punishable by up to five years in prison.

The bill faced opposition for containing indefinite restrictions on these powers, as well as concerns over the possibility that the “fake news” prohibition in the bill could be abused for censorship of independent media outlets.

In June 2020, the Hungarian parliament voted to end the rule by decree, but this left the government more powerful than before the crisis.

Usage of Article 7 was discussed again in January 2024 when Hungary blocked unanimous EU support for Ukraine.