Ipsos’ final election poll of the 2024 campaign has Labour maintaining a strong lead over the Conservatives, albeit slipping back over the last week.  The poll, carried out 1-3 July, has headline voting intention figures of:

• Labour 37% (-5 from last week)
• Conservatives 19% (nc)
• Reform UK 15% (nc)
• Liberal Democrats 11% (nc)
• Greens 9% (+2)

This means the Conservatives stay on their lowest vote share in Ipsos records since the late 1970s, but also puts Labour on their lowest vote share since 2021.  The Conservatives are holding on to less than half of their 2019 voters, with Reform UK the main beneficiaries.

 However there are still clear signs of volatility amongst voters, which means there is still scope for the final picture to change.  Nearly 3 in 10 voters, 28%, say they may still change their mind, which is the highest Ipsos has recorded at this late stage since May 2010 (for example, in our final poll in 2019 23% said they may still change their mind).   Young people (39% of 18-34s) and Liberal Democrat supporters (41%) are the most likely to say they may change their mind, but only 13% of Reform UK backers. 

There is also evidence of higher than normal levels of tactical voting, with 17% of those picking a party saying they are doing so to keep another party out, as the party they support has little chance of winning in their constituency.   Again, this is the highest level Ipsos has recorded at this late stage of an election going back to 1987.  Liberal Democrat supporters are particularly likely to be voting tactically (37%).

Certainty of voting is also lower than in recent elections, with 70% saying they are certain to vote, compared with 80% at this stage in 2019.  (Note these figures usually overstate the actual level of turnout.)

As with voting intentions, Keir Starmer retains a clear lead over Rishi Sunak as most capable Prime Minister, but his ratings on this have also fallen since last week.  36% think he would make the most capable PM (down from 46% last week), while 21% pick Rishi Sunak (no change). Nearly 3 in 10, 28%, say neither.

Labour also leads the Conservatives on having the best team of leaders to deal with the country’s problems (by 27% to 13%), best at looking after the interests of people like you (by 26% to 17%), best policies for the country as a whole (24% to 14%), and closest to standing for the things you believe in (23% to 15%).   But in each case only around 4 in 10 picked one of the country’s two main parties.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:

There has been a profound change in Britain’s political landscape since the last election. The Conservatives’ base has fractured – losing votes on both sides – amidst concerns over public services, the economy and cost of living, immigration, and their record of delivery, and as the brand of their party and of their leaders has been damaged.  Labour meanwhile look set to enter government with a healthy majority, and with a clear lead over the Conservatives as they try to take advantage of the public mood for change. 
However, the final outcome is still not set in stone, with relatively high numbers still saying they may change their mind, even in the last few days before the vote, and with the potential for lower turnout but high tactical voting all adding to the uncertainty.  Labour has overcome many doubts amongst the public about their readiness for government, but are finishing the campaign with the public still restraining their enthusiasm.

Technical Note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 2,076 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain (of whom 1,217 gave a voting intention figure and passed the turnout filter to be included in the headline figure). Interviews were conducted by telephone between 1st – 3rd July 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

Larry the cat has higher favourability rankings than either Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer

New polling from Ipsos has found that 44% of Britons have a favourable opinion of Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office Larry the cat. This is higher than either Rishi Sunak (22%) or Keir Starmer (34%). He also boasts higher approval ratings than former Prime Ministers Boris Johnson (29%) and Liz Truss (7%), as well as former Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn (17%) and Count Binface (16%).

Awareness of Larry is high, with 38% of the British public saying they have heard a great deal/a fair amount about the Number 10 cat.

In contrast to Larry’s popularity, only 15% of Britons hold a favourable view of the Downing Street mice. Therefore, his status as Chief Mouser appears secure, no matter who the human occupant of Number 10 Downing Street is on July 5th.

Technical note:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,095 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Polling was conducted online between 28 June – 1 July 2024.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.