MIAMI – Millions of people from Louisiana to Florida are keeping their eyes on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which was designated in the Caribbean Sea on Monday and is forecast to wreak havoc on the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week, potentially as a major hurricane.
A potential tropical cyclone designation permits the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue routine advisories on a system that has not yet developed into a tropical depression or tropical storm but brings a threat of 39-plus-mph winds to land within 48 hours.
This falls within the time window of posting tropical storm and hurricane alerts, allowing the NHC to issue them with additional lead time and provide at-risk people with more advance notice of possible impacts in their area.
According to the NHC, there is the potential for a dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, heavy rain and strong winds to impact the Florida Panhandle and the west coast of Florida.
National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome told FOX Weather that over the past 24 hours, the forecast models have started to come into agreement, showing a Florida landfall.
“It’s looking increasingly like this is going to be primarily a Florida impact and potentially a significant one at that,” Rhome said. “Our initial forecast showed a borderline Category 2/Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson (Wind) Scale as it makes landfall.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order on Monday declaring a state of emergency for 41 counties in the Sunshine State to help agencies prepare for the storm.
“We will continue to monitor the storm’s path and keep Floridians updated. Now is the time to make an emergency plan, know your evacuation zone, and be as prepared as possible for the storm,” DeSantis said on X.
In Leon County, which is home to Florida’s capital of Tallahassee, sandbags are being offered to residents in anticipation of torrential rain and flooding.
The city of Tallahassee is also making other preparations in advance of the incoming storm. City officials said crews would be working to check areas known to flood and will remove obstructions and post warnings for drivers.
“Should roads be impacted, all motorists should use caution and not drive through flooded areas or around barricades,” city officials wrote on their website.
Future Tropical Storm Helene A Hurricane Danger To Florida, Gulf Coast; Alerts Issued In Florida Keys
At a Glance
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys.
Tropical Storm Helene will develop soon in the western Caribbean Sea.
It is likely to be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
Most forecast models suggest a hurricane landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast Thursday.
The hurricane could be strong at landfall with life-threatening storm surge, high winds and heavy rain.
Impacts could push well inland in parts of the South into Friday.
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Tropical Storm Helene is expected to form in the western Caribbean Sea and is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane before it strikes Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor this situation closely, stay updated on how the forecast unfolds in the days ahead and have their hurricane plans ready to go.
Watches and warnings issued: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys, including Key West and Big Pine Key.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning have been issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, from just west of Cancún to Tulum, including Cozumel. They are also in effect for parts of western Cuba, generally west of Havana.
This means tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in these areas within the next 36-48 hours.
Where it is right now: A broad area of low pressure is in the western Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms are gradually becoming more organized in this area.
It’s been dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, a procedure NHC uses to issue watches and warnings ahead of time, before a tropical depression or storm forms.
- Monday-Tuesday: A tropical depression or storm could form as soon as late Monday or Tuesday. Once the system reaches tropical storm strength, it is expected to be named Tropical Storm Helene. By late Tuesday, Helene could near Cancún, Cozumel and western Cuba as either a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane. Locally heavy rain, strong wind gusts and storm surge flooding are possible in those areas. Parts of western Cuba could pick up 12 inches of rain or more.
- Wednesday: Helene could have some lingering impacts in Cancún, Cozumel and western Cuba, especially early. We then expect Helene to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands could reach parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.
- Thursday: Despite some remaining uncertainty in the forecast, Helene is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane Thursday afternoon or evening. While computer forecast models suggest the most likely location for a landfall is somewhere from Florida’s Big Bend to the Panhandle, remember that hurricane impacts (surge, winds, rain) often happen far from the center. There are still a few computer ensemble model forecasts with tracks as far east as Florida’s West Coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana or Mississippi. So, everyone along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should continue to monitor this forecast for any possible changes ahead.
- Friday: This system is most likely to push inland quickly with some lingering strong wind gusts and locally flooding rain over parts of the Southeast.
How strong could it become: Helene is forecasted to reach major hurricane intensity in the Gulf ahead of landfall.
That’s because heat content is one favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwest Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Gulf of Mexico heat content is at record high levels for this time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.
Forecast models suggest upper level winds could spread apart over Helene, which is favorable for strengthening, instead of shearing and tilting Helene’s circulation.
For those reasons, Helene could reach at least Category 3 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before landfall.
U.S. rainfall potential: While it’s too soon for specifics on other impacts – including storm surge and winds – we expect Helene to produce heavy rainfall generally along and to the east of its track.
The heaviest rain is expected Thursday into Friday in parts of the Southeast, but some bands of heavy rain could arrive as early as Wednesday. This rain could lead to flash flooding, especially where it combines with storm surge and over higher terrain.
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