The Nov. 5 re-election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency will create new challenges and some limited opportunities for nuclear disarmament. In his first term, the president-elect endorsed the development and deployment of new nuclear weapons and elevated the role of nuclear deterrence in U.S. military strategy. Trump pursued an ill-fated attempt to bring China into the U.S.-Russian arms control framework, creating uncertainty about a five-year extension of New START that was ultimately endorsed by the Biden administration. But, the former president’s instinct for deal-making and high-level diplomacy also created fleeting opportunities for direct talks with other nuclear weapons states.
In 2025, Trump will face the consequences of the nuclear policy decisions from his first term. After lowering the perceived willingness of the United States to rely on nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific, Trump’s team will have to consider how to address China’s response, which has been to quickly expand its strategic nuclear arsenal.
By adding programs to U.S. strategic modernization plans as called for in his 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, Trump raised the bill of that acquisition effort. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates U.S. nuclear forces will cost $756 billion over the coming decade. Several Republican leaders have proposed that the United States prepare to increase the size and diversity of the U.S. nuclear arsenal even further to contend with two “near-peer” nuclear competitors.
With negotiations on extending tax cuts on Congress’ horizon, increasing pressures on conventional military acquisition programs within the defense budget, and a razor-thin House majority, a ballooning nuclear modernization account will be an unwelcome headache that will persist throughout Trump’s second term in office.
The most pressing priority, however, remains the fast-approaching end of New START in February 2026 and decisions by the Kremlin and the White House about how to manage their strategic nuclear relationship and prevent a quantitative arms race.
While the president-elect boasts of a strong personal relationship with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, there are formidable challenges inherent in an arms control negotiation between long-time rivals saddled by a history of grievances and suspicions.
In remarks Nov. 8 at the Valdai Discussion Club’s plenary session, Putin said: “We will see how a new future US administration will be formulating its proposals on this matter, if at all. Russia, Putin said, is basically ready for a dialogue on strategic stability, but “it is necessary for the other side to approach it honestly, with due regard for all aspects of relations.”
If Trump wants to begin his presidency with a high-profile diplomatic victory, he could defuse the risk of a nuclear buildup by Russia after New START expires by offering to maintain U.S. deployed nuclear forces at a level consistent with New START limits beyond that treaty’s duration, as long as the Russian Federation does the same.
—Xiaodon Liang, senior policy analyst; Shizuka Kuramitsu, research assistant; Libby Flatoff, operations and program assistant; Doniyor Mutalov, policy and research intern.
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