New imagery appears to show vessels with Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have left the country’s Novorossiysk base, after Moscow relocated its ships further east in the Black Sea to shield its fleet from persistent Ukrainian attacks. The imagery, dated June 5, indicates a possible “exodus” of Black Sea Fleet vessels from the base in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, an open-source intelligence account posted to social media.
Ukraine’s navy said early on Thursday that four Russian ships were in the Black Sea, including a Kalibr-cruise missile carrier, as of 7 a.m. local time.
Russia had used the occupied Crimean city of Sevastopol as its primary Black Sea base, but consistent Ukrainian missile and drone strikes—and substantial Russian naval losses—forced Moscow to relocate many of its assets further east in the Black Sea, including to its Novorossiysk base.Western intelligence has evaluated that Russia has restricted its activity in the northwestern Black Sea, where Ukraine can more easily threaten its fleet. Kyiv’s targeting of Sevastopol has made Novorossiysk a “crucial” port for harboring the Black Sea Fleet’s “most valuable assets,” the British Defense Ministry said earlier this year.
Reports have also suggested the Kremlin is planning a new military base at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, occupied by Russians since 1992.
Russia has used the Ochamchire port for naval operations in the past. During the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, Russian vessels were deployed to the port and used it as a launching pad for advances into the territory controlled by Tbilisi. Since then, the aforementioned 2009 agreement with the de-facto Abkhaz leadership has granted Russia indirect control of the port.
Georgia has been facing challenges to its naval security for years. The elimination of the Georgian Navy after the 2008 Russian invasion and its subsequent transformation into a coastal patrol force have left the country with limited maritime defense capabilities. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent reinforcement of its Black Sea military presence have only intensified the threat. But a permanent Russian naval presence within striking distance of the Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi would pose a more imminent national security challenge for Georgia.
“If Russia does relocate its Black Sea Fleet to the port of Ochamchire, it has the potential to transform Georgia into a versatile strategic asset for Russia’s endeavors against Ukraine—or even an additional theater of conflict”, Georgian security analysts from GIP believe.
“The acquisition of the Ochamchire base not only empowers Russia to launch assaults from Georgia’s shores, but also heightens Georgia’s susceptibility to retaliatory actions by Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already announced that any new Russian base, including in Abkhazia, would be considered a legitimate target of the Ukrainian military.
If Russia does relocate its Black Sea Fleet to the port of Ochamchire, it has the potential to transform Georgia into a versatile strategic asset for Russia’s endeavors against Ukraine—or even an additional theater of conflict. The acquisition of the Ochamchire base not only empowers Russia to launch assaults from Georgia’s shores, but also heightens Georgia’s susceptibility to retaliatory actions by Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already announced that any new Russian base, including in Abkhazia, would be considered a legitimate target of the Ukrainian military”.
Ochamchire is 35km from Georgian controlled territories, that allows specific drones target military objects.
Majority of Georgian population is supporting Ukraine’s resistance to common enemy, while Georgian government remains neutral, avoiding possible confrontation with Russia.
Recent survey shows that the majority of Georgians do not believe compromises can stop Russia from war.
In light of the ongoing war in Ukraine, security issues for the region once again arise, even if these concerns have faded to some extent, since the 2008 Russo-Georgia war. The survey asked respondents whether Ukraine could avoid the invasion by making compromises with Russia, as well as if it is an option for Georgia and which compromises are worth for peace. Over one-third of Georgians think that compromises, in general, could/can avoid war, both in Ukraine and Georgia. While almost half of the respondents (46%) think that compromises with Russia would not help Ukraine to avoid the war, only 22% think similarly about Georgia. The rest of the respondents (about a quarter) think there is no threat of such war at all.
There are up to 300 000 refugees (IDPs) from Abkhazia. Many of them are veterans of Russo-Georgian war in 1992, in which Russian soldiers killed 5,000 civilians (400 were missing). In 1994 and again in 1996, the OSCE, during its Budapest summit, officially recognized the ethnic cleansing of Georgians in Abkhazia and condemned the “perpetrators of war crimes committed during the conflict.”
Estimates vary, but Georgian media approximates that between 50-60 Georgian soldiers have been killed fighting for Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, making it likely the highest death toll of any foreign nationality fighting on the Ukrainian side.
Most of Georgian believe that Ukraine’s victory may help to liberate Russia occupied territories in Western Georgia and allow Georgians return their homes.
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